[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning has expired.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N12W to 7N16W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 6N26W 5N37W 7N49W to 6N54W. A surface trough extends from
13N55W to inland over South America near 6N57W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 4N-10N between
42W-50W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are within 150/180 nm either side of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 13W-38W and within 90 nm of a line from
9N50W to 12N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A remnant stationary front remains in the southwest Gulf
extending from a 1013 mb low near 20N94W northeast along 23N90W
then east to 24N85W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm north and west of the front
and south of the low to the coast of Mexico between 93W-95W. A
broad upper ridge covers the Gulf anchored in the Caribbean
giving the Gulf westerly flow aloft. This upper flow is
advecting tropical moisture across the Gulf and is generating
scattered to numerous showers north of 25N and south of 25N west
of 94W. The front and low will linger through Monday then merge
with a new cold front that will enter the northeast Gulf later
tonight. This merged front will move out of the Gulf late
Tuesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated upper ridge extends from east to west anchored near
17N78W and extends to over the Gulf of Mexico and the west
Atlantic. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from
18N79W along 15N81W to 11N81W generating scattered to numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms from 12N-17N between 77W-
84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the area
from 11N-18N between 75W-84W. The east Caribbean is tranquil
tonight. The surface trough trough will persist through midweek.
The merged front in the Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwest
Caribbean Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the central Atlantic along 20N69W
over the island to near 18N71W. This is giving the Dominican
Republic scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
east of the trough and within 45 nm west of the trough. Showers
will linger over the Dominican Republic through Monday with some
clearing on Tuesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a weak 1016 mb low near
32N79W extending a developing front southwest from the low to
inland over northeast Florida near Jacksonville. A broad upper
trough covers the remainder of the west Atlantic into the
central Atlantic supporting a cold front that extends through
32N53W and continues to 27N66W where it becomes stationary along
28N73W to 30N77W. A surface trough precedes the front extending
through 32N48W along 25N54W 20N69W to over Hispaniola. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north 28N
between 46W and the cold front with scattered showers from 25N-
28N between the surface trough and the front. A broad surface
ridge covers the east Atlantic anchored by a 1035 mb high about
700 nm northeast of the Azores. The new cold front will continue
across the west Atlantic through midweek.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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