[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The current situation consists of a stationary front 23N84W
24N90W 21N94W 18N93.5W. Gale-force NW winds are to the south of
21N to the west of 95W. Expect sea heights to range from 9 feet
to 12 feet. Expect the gale-force conditions to continue for the
next 18 hours or so. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...for more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N15W, to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N21W
05N32W, 03N37W and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 10N southward from 50W eastward.

A surface trough is along 51W/52W from 14N southward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N to
14N between 47W and 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico, from
109W eastward, across the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond Florida. A
stationary front curves from 23N84W to 24N90W to 22N93W, to a 1013
mb low pressure center that is in the SW corner of the area near
20N93W, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 22N
between 92W and 95W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere in much
of the area, except for parts of the area that are from 26N
northward from 90W eastward, and from 25N southward from 84W
eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through
the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake
Charles metropolitan area. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA:
MVFR at Fort Rucker. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview, and in the NW
part of Panama City with smoke, in Apalachicola. MVFR in Perry and
Cross City. IFR in Brooksville.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A ridge extends
from northern sections of Colombia and NW Venezuela northwestward,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 79W/80W from 16N southward. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
16N southward between 70W and 84W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Merida, Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Haiti. Upper level N-to-
NW wind flow is moving across the Dominican Republic. A
dissipating stationary front cuts across Hispaniola along a NE-
to-SW line. A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas, through
the Windward Passage, to SE Cuba. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N to 22N
between 70W and 79W, including across interior sections of
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. ceiling
at 5000 feet. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona at 13/0000 UTC:
rain and thunder. Santo Domingo: MVFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
ceiling at 1700 feet. La Romana: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana:
light rain. Santiago: rain. Puerto Plata: rain has ended for the
moment. MVFR. ceiling at 1800 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level W wind flow moves from Florida and Georgia into the
Atlantic Ocean. The wind flow crosses 70W, and then it changes to
NW wind flow as it moves toward the central Atlantic Ocean deep
layer trough. A cold front is to the north of the area, from 70W
westward. A surface trough is along 31N72W, to south Florida near
26N82W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
north of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front, which includes the
area that is covered by this surface trough.

A deep layer central Atlantic Ocean trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N52W to 24N60W 22N69W, and dissipating
cold front from 22N69W to 21N75W. A surface trough is within 90 nm
to the SE of the cold front, between 53W and 66W. A post-frontal
surface trough is to the NW of the cold front, passing through
32N55W to 29N60W and 29N66W. Convective precipitation: early
strong precipitation has weakened. Cloud top temperatures have
warmed significantly. Convective debris clouds and possible
lingering rainshowers cover the area from 23N northward between
44W and 53W. Rainshowers are possible also from 24N northward
between 52W and 80W, to the north of the cold front, and from 20N
to 24N between 70W and 77W near the Bahamas and Cuba. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from
19N to 22N between 63W and 70W including along the coast of the
Dominican Republic. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N to
24N between 60W and 68W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N34W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward
between Africa and 45W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N
northward between Africa and 44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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