[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
Broad high pressure centered across Missouri, Illinois and Ohio
extends a ridge axis S-SW along Mexico and the northern Gulf of
Mexico. In the southern Gulf, a stationary front extends from
24N83W to 23N90W to a 1013 mb low in the Bay of Campeche near
19N93W. The pressure gradient between these features is
generating strong to gale force NW winds in the SW basin S of 21N
west of 95W with seas from 9 to 12 feet. Gale force winds are
forecast to diminish by Sunday afternoon. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 09N15W to 04N22W to 03N42W. Scattered to
isolated showers are from 01N to 07N E of 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters being
generated by strong pressure gradient between high pressure in
the northern Gulf and along Mexico, and low pressure associated
with a stationary front connected to a low center in the Bay of
Campeche. The gale winds are forecast to diminish by Sunday
afternoon, however fresh to near gale force winds are expected to
continue through Monday afternoon. Please refer to the special
features section above for further details. Middle to upper level
SW flow advects EPAC moisture to the basin, which is supporting
scattered to isolated showers mainly west of 90W. A middle to
upper level trough in the NW Atlantic with base near 32N supports
a cold front in the SW N Atlantic that transitions to a stationary
front near 29N72W, across northern Florida to 28N82W to 27N86W in
the NE Gulf. With lack of support aloft this stationary front will
weaken and dissipate Sunday, thus leaving a surface trough in its
place. The stationary front in the SW basin will dissipate Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence from
aloft provide fair weather conditions to the NW basin. However,
deep layer moisture across the central and southern Caribbean
along with areas of upper level diffluence support scattered
moderate convection S of 16N between 60W and 84W. In the NW basin,
the combination of an upper level trough, middle level diffluence
and proximity of a cold front N of the area support scattered
showers across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. A surface trough
extends from southern waters of Inagua Islands SW across eastern
Cuba from 20N75W to 19N78W. This area of low pressure support
scattered to isolated showers and tstms over Hispaniola.
Otherwise, moderate trades are E of 80W and gentle to moderate NE
flow dominate the NW Caribbean waters. No major changes expected
through Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tail of a cold front NE of Hispaniola and a surface trough
across northern adjacent waters along with middle to upper level
diffluence continue to support scattered to isolated showers and
tstms across the Island. Showers associated with these features is
forecast to continue through Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds
will develop across the Windward Passage tonight through Sunday
morning, resuming in the afternoon and continuing into early
Monday morning. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough in the NW Atlantic with base near
32N supports a cold front that extends along 30N48W to 22N56W to
20N67W. The same upper trough supports a reinforcing cold front
that extends from 30N65W to 29N72W where it transitions to a
stationary front along 30N79W to 28N82W into the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the
reinforcing cold front and within 90 nm ahead of the leading cold
front. A surface trough extends along southern waters of Inagua
Islands SW across eastern Cuba from 20N75W to 19N78W and support
isolated showers across portions of the Grand Bahama Bank.
Otherwise the remainder SW basin between the fronts is dominated
by surface ridging as well as the central and eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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