[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...A GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The current situation consists of a stationary front 24N84W
24.5N88W 24N94W 18N94W. Gale-force NW and N winds are to the south
of 21N to the west of the front. Expect sea heights to range from
8 feet to 11 feet. Expect the gale-force conditions to continue
for the next 48 hours or so. Please read the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...for more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Senegal near
13N17W. The ITCZ continues from 13N17W to 08N17W 04N30W and
02N44W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 06N southward from 40W eastward.

A surface trough is along 47W/48W from 20N southward. The wave has
been moving westward 10 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 07N to
14N between 42W and 47W.

A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 10N to French Guiana.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N
southward between 50W and 57W. It is possible that some of the
precipitation that is associated with the 47W/48W surface trough
may be in this same area.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico near
20N100W, across the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond Florida.
A SE-to-NW oriented surface trough extends from the coastal
waters of NW Cuba into the central Gulf of Mexico. A stationary
front continues from the central Gulf of Mexico, and it curves
westward and southward, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
A north-to-south oriented surface trough is between 90W and the
stationary front. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible in much of the area, except for parts of the area that
are from 26N southward from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through
the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: rain in Edinburg. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no
ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area,
from Central America and South America, toward the NE, and across
the open waters of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 71W/72W from the Dominican Republic to
La Peninsula de la Guajira of NE Colombia. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate between 66W and 77W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from
19N to 22N between 63W and 70W, including along the coast of the
Dominican Republic, and in the coastal waters of Hispaniola.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from parts of the NW
Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the area. The monsoon trough
is along 09N/10N between Colombia and Costa Rica. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is to the south of
15N83W 14N78W 13N71W, including in coastal areas of Venezuela and
Colombia.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
12/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
the Atlantic Ocean from 19N to 22N between 63W and 70W, including
along the coast of the Dominican Republic, and in the coastal
waters of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no
ceilings. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: MVFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. ceiling at 1600 feet. La Romana: VFR/no ceilings. Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago; VFR.
ceiling at 8000 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. ceiling at 7000 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic
circulation center will move from the Yucatan Peninsula into the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, during day one. Expect NW wind
flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
anticyclonic wind flow will be present across Hispaniola during
day one. Expect NW and N wind flow across the area during day two.
An anticyclonic circulation center will form in the area that is
between the Cayman Islands, SE Cuba, and Jamaica. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow, with an east-to-west
oriented ridge, will move across the during the first half of day
one. Expect anticyclonic wind flow across the area during the
second half of day one, with a separate anticyclonic circulation
center. More anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area from
the second half of day one into the middle of day two. The second
half of day two will consist of N-to-NE wind flow, in a large-
scale ridge, whose anticyclonic wind flow is forecast to cover
parts of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic
Ocean.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level W wind flow moves from Florida and Georgia into the
Atlantic Ocean. The wind flow crosses 70W, and then it changes to
NW wind flow as it moves toward the central Atlantic Ocean deep
layer trough. A cold front is to the north of the area, from 70W
westward. A surface trough is along 31N72W, to south Florida near
26N82W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
north of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front, which includes the
area that is covered by this surface trough.

A deep layer central Atlantic Ocean trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N52W to 24N60W 22N69W, and dissipating
cold front from 22N69W to 21N75W. A surface trough is within 90 nm
to the SE of the cold front, between 53W and 66W. A post-frontal
surface trough is to the NW of the cold front, passing through
32N55W to 29N60W and 29N66W. Convective precipitation: early
strong precipitation has weakened. Cloud top temperatures have
warmed significantly. Convective debris clouds and possible
lingering rainshowers cover the area from 23N northward between
44W and 53W. Rainshowers are possible also from 24N northward
between 52W and 80W, to the north of the cold front, and from 20N
to 24N between 70W and 77W near the Bahamas and Cuba. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from
19N to 22N between 63W and 70W including along the coast of the
Dominican Republic. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N to
24N between 60W and 68W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N34W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward
between Africa and 45W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between Africa and 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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