[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect for the
southwest Gulf of Mexico until 0000 UTC this evening. Minimal gale
force northerly winds have been occurring offshore of the coast of
Mexico near Veracruz behind a stalled out frontal boundary,
supported by sharp high pressure ridging which extends southward
just inland over eastern Mexico. The front and pressure gradient
will weaken this evening allowing for winds to diminish below gale
force. Seas up to 12 ft will also subside later this evening.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends across Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 04N18W. The intertropical
convergence zone axis extends from 04N18W to 08N40W to 09N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 17W and
20W, and also from 07N to 11N between 30W and 36W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is from 08N to 13N
between 51W and 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
progressing eastward offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast and
approaching Bermuda. This features is supporting a surface cold
front which extends from south Florida just south of Lake
Okeechobee into the east-central Gulf near 27N86W, then continuing
westward as a stationary front through 26N94W, and then southward
to the coast of southeast Mexico near 18N94W. Other than the gale
force winds offshore of Veracruz as mentioned in the special
features section above, fresh to strong northeast to east flow is
occurring behind the front. Mainly gentle east to southeast flow
is present south of the frontal boundary. The front will move very
little through Friday night while a new cold front is forecast to
sink southward across the northern Gulf Saturday, eventually
merging with the old front later in the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge extends from southeast to northwest across
the basin with mainly north-northeast flow aloft across the
waters. At the surface, a trough snakes from the Gulf of Honduras
southeastward to 15N82W, and then southward into the southwest
Caribbean near 10N82W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are across the southwest Caribbean. Another trough,
which has the characteristics of a tropical wave, is in the
eastern Caribbean reaching from eastern Puerto Rico near 18N66W
southward to 1011 mb low pressure near 15.5N67W then continuing to
13N67W. Convection near the low has diminished during the past
several hours, however a deep convection is firing to the east
over the southeast Caribbean islands, with numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection from 11N to 16N between 60W and 63W.
The low is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours while
the trough continues westward, reaching the central Caribbean
early Friday, before dissipating Saturday as it approaches the
western Caribbean. Mainly moderate trades will increase locally to
fresh into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens slightly.

...HISPANIOLA...
A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring
this afternoon, but are diminishing with the loss of daytime
heating. Similar conditions are forecast during the next 24 hours,
with slightly more coverage possible Friday as the northern extentof a surface trough approaches the island from the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends across the southwest north
Atlantic, extending from a vigorous upper level low near 36N65W
southwest through 30N70W to the northern Bahamas. This feature is
supporting a surface cold front which extends from Bermuda
southwest through 27N74W to near the far northwest Bahamas and the
east coast of Florida near Jupiter. The northern extent of a
surface trough reaches from the east coast of Puerto Rico to
21N65W. The cold front is forecast to reach from 23N60W to
Hispaniola and Cuba Friday, dissipating Friday night. A stronger
cold front will move into the northwest waters late Saturday. The
trough will weaken as it approaches Hispaniola Friday. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a nearly stationary 1031 mb high centered southeast of the Azores
near 35N22W. A weak surface trough is ever so slightly disrupting
the ridge, extending from 21N37W to 14N42W with little associated
convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LEWITSKY
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