[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 8N12W to 6N15W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 5N25W 7N42W to 8N55W. A surface trough extends from 12N56W
to 8N55W with scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N-
13N between 43W-58W. Scattered moderate with embedded clusters
of isolated strong convection are from 5N-8N between 13W-22W,
from 7N-10N between 30W-37W, and from 4N-7N between 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough over the west Atlantic is supporting a cold
front that extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida
between Vero Beach and Sarasota to 27N86W where it becomes
stationary along 25N95W into the Bay of Campeche to the coast of
Mexico near 18N94W. An upper ridge extends from the Caribbean
through the Yucatan Channel across to the northwest Gulf of
Mexico to inland over the lower Mississippi Valley. This upper
ridge is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N-28N west of
91W to inland over south Texas and northeast Mexico with
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of
24N west of 94W. Dry air is moving into the northeast Gulf
giving the area remarkably clear skies this afternoon. The cold
front will continue to move south reaching from the Florida Keys
to the southeast Gulf tonight, then to Cuba late Friday while
the stationary front will persist from the central to the
southwest Gulf through Friday. The entire front will dissipate
Friday night. Another front will move into the northwest Gulf
Saturday with gale force winds near Veracruz late Saturday night
as strong high pressure build over the eastern CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated upper ridge extends from the southeast Caribbean to
the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico anchored in the
central Caribbean near 16N70W. At the surface is a surface trough
that extends from the Virgin Islands near Saint Croix through a
weak 1012 mb low near 15N65W to 12N65W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are from 14N-16N between 64W-66W with
Isolated showers north of 13N to over the Virgin Islands between
63W-66W. A second surface trough is along the coast of Nicaragua
from 13N83W to 16N84W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. The
monsoon trough is south of the Caribbean but is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 15N to
across Panama between 76W-81W. The weather across the remainder
of the Caribbean is tranquil this afternoon. The low/surface
trough in the east Caribbean will move west and reach the
central Caribbean through early Friday before dissipating. The
second surface trough will move inland over Central America this
evening. A pulse of fresh to strong winds across the north-
central Caribbean will diminish tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated low level clouds are developing across island this
afternoon with possible isolated showers. Additional moisture
will over the island Friday with a front shifting south from the
west Atlantic. This will increase the chance of showers and
possible thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the northwest Atlantic extends south to 27N
supporting a cold front that extends through 32N69W and
continues along 28N75W then across central Florida near Vero
Beach. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
within 120 nm southeast of the front east of 75W and within 60
nm south of the front west of 75W. A weak surface ridge is over
the central Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N58W. A
narrow, upper shortwave trough is in the central Atlantic along
52W north of 20N which is amplifying an upper ridge to the east.
This is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to
numerous showers north of 23N between 45W-51W. An upper low is
in the east Atlantic centered near 23N32W generating clusters of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 17N-24N
between 27W-36W. A surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic
north of 20N east of 46W anchored by a 1033 mb high between the
Madeira Islands and the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front
will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas tonight then move
into the central Atlantic through 32N54W 23N60W to Hispaniola
and Cuba then dissipate by Friday night. A strong cold front
will move into the west Atlantic Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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