[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
608 AM EST WED NOV 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N20W to
07N37W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 02N-17N between 13W-34W. This active convection
continues to be enhanced within diffluent southwesterly flow on
the southeastern periphery of an upper level low centered near
23N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf basin
this morning between a middle to upper level low centered over
northern Mexico near 29N104W and broad upper level ridging over
the eastern Gulf with axis along 84W. Given the overall diffluent
environment across the basin...the approaching troughing supports
a 1014 mb low analyzed across the north-central Gulf near 29N90W
with a surface trough extending SW to 26N91W to 23N95W. Plenty of
Pacific moisture and cloudiness continues to advect northeastward
across central Mexico and much of the western and northern
portions of the the Gulf with scattered showers and isolated tstms
occurring NW of a line from the Florida Big Bend region near 30N83W
to 20N96W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered across the SE CONUS.
Primarily gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected across the
eastern Gulf on Wednesday as the surface trough and low drift SE.
Meanwhile...a frontal boundary is expected to drop S by late
Wednesday providing fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and
fresh to strong N-NW winds W of the boundary across the far
western Gulf. Thereafter through Friday...the front is expected to
gradually become stationary from the Straits of Florida to the
western waters near 23N96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level trough is noted over the NE Caribbean with
axis extending from over 20N65W SW to a base over 13N67W. Water
vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft in association with the
troughing and areas to the west where upper level ridging
prevails. However to the east of the troughing...upper level flow
becomes southwesterly with moisture and cloudiness increasing
across the eastern Caribbean. The troughing is supporting a
surface trough analyzed from 10N62W across many of the Lesser
Antilles to 18N60W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms
are occurring from 10N-21N between 56W-62W. The trough is
expected to drift westward within gentle to moderate trade wind
flow.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently a lingering surface trough extends from N of Puerto
Rico near 21N66W to 18N72W providing focus for possible isolated
showers across the island this morning. Aloft however...dry and
stable NW flow prevails on the western periphery of an upper level
trough axis exiting to the east. As the surface trough boundary
becomes diffuse during the next 24 to 36 hours...fair skies and
conditions are expected through Wednesday night into Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered north of the
discussion area near 39N56W and is nearly collocated with a gale-
force 995 mb low centered near 38N58W. The associated cold front
is analyzed from 32N56W SW to 29N60W to 28N65W with a surface
trough boundary analyzed to the SE of the main front. The surface
trough extends from 32N50W to 23N60W to 19N71W with scattered
showers and isolated tstms occurring generally within 240 nm
either side of the surface trough boundary. The remainder of the
SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1021 mb high centered across eastern Alabama near 33N86W.
Otherwise...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered SE of the Azores near
36N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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