[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST TUE NOV 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 08N37W to 10N54W to
06N37W to 09N48W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-17N between 10W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper-level ridge prevails over much of the basin. A mid-
level shortwave trough is noted on Water Vapor imagery along 91W
supporting a 1016 mb surface low centered near 28N91W with a
surface trough that extends from 24N95W, to the low, to 29N91W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring mainly north of
23N and west of 87W. Elsewhere: a surface ridge extends from a
1028 mb high centered near 38N81W. Scatterometer data depicts
light to gentle easterly winds across the west Gulf west of 91W
while moderate to fresh easterlies prevail east of 91W. Expect
through the next 24 hours for the surface low and trough to drift
eastward. A cold front is expected to move across the northern
Gulf waters on Wednesday and provide fresh to strong NE winds N of
the front and fresh to strong N-NW winds W of the boundary across
the far western Gulf. The front is expected to gradually become
stationary from the Straits of Florida to the western waters near
24N by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is noted over the western Caribbean with
axis extending from over eastern Cuba near 20N77W to a base over
eastern Honduras near 15N83W. Water Vapor imagery indicates dry
air aloft in association with this trough. Farther east, as flow
aloft becomes southwesterly...moisture and cloudiness increases
across the central and eastern Caribbean mainly east of 80W. A
pair of surface troughs extend from 19N76W to 20N72W and from
16N72W to 19N64W with isolated convection. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh northeasterly winds west of 75W while
gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. An active surface
trough will enter the eastern Caribbean within the next 24 hours
with scattered moderate convection affecting the Lesser Antilles.
Little change is expected elsewhere during the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends across the northwest coast of the island
from 19N76W to 20N72W generating isolated showers mainly across
the adjacent Atlantic waters. The trough is expected to remain
stationary and linger across the region through Wednesday
providing for continued precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low is centered north of the discussion area
near 37N63W supporting a cold front that extends from 24N71W to
32N56W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N71W to
24N60W to 32N54W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are observed
within 200 nm on either side of the surface trough. An active
surface trough extends east of the Lesser Antilles from 16N57W to
10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough
between 54W-61W. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered
southeast of the Azores near 37N23W. One exception to the ridging
is a weakness analyzed as a dry surface trough extending from
21N38W to 17N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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