[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N19W to 07N25W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 04N-08N between 08W-13W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-13N between 15W-39W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 09N-15N between 47W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin
this evening with middle to upper level troughing noted on water
vapor imagery over the central US Plains extending SW to over NW
Mexico near 28N106W. A mid-level shortwave trough is also
indicated to the E-SE of the main troughing in the vicinity of
34N90W. This shortwave troughing supports a surface trough
boundary analyzed across eastern Mississippi to SE Louisiana into
the NW Gulf waters near 29N92W to 25N95W. Isolated showers and
possible isolated tstms are occurring N of 23N W of 88W this
evening. Otherwise...a ridge axis extends from a 1030 mb high
centered across the Delmarva region to 30N85W to the SW Gulf
waters near 21N94W. Primarily moderate to fresh E-SE winds are
expected through Wednesday as the surface trough drifts eastward.
In addition...a cold front is expected to move across the
northern Gulf waters Wednesday and provide fresh to strong NE
winds N of the front and fresh to strong N-NW winds W of the
boundary across the far western Gulf. Thereafter through
Friday...the front is expected to gradually become stationary
from the Straits of Florida to the western waters near 24N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level trough is noted over the western Caribbean
with axis extending from over central Cuba near 22N78W SW to a
base over NE Honduras near 15N85W. Water vapor imagery indicates
dry air aloft in association with the troughing...however farther
east...as flow aloft becomes southwesterly...moisture and
cloudiness increases across the central and eastern Caribbean.
With the close proximity to a cold front analyzed along 20N and a
surface trough analyzed from western Hispaniola near 19N72W to
13N73W...these boundaries are providing focus for scattered
showers and tstms occurring mainly E of 71W. A few isolated
showers are occurring as well S of 16N between 71W-80W. The front
is expected to become stationary along 19N/20N Tuesday into
Wednesday with fresh NE to E winds expected across the adjacent
coastal waters of Cuba and across the Windward Passage region.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate trade are expected to prevail.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently a cold front extends N of the island from 24N60W to
21N65W to 20N74W generating isolated showers and possible tstms
across the island this evening. Much of the strongest convective
activity remains E of 70W as middle to upper level dynamics are
maximized E of an upper level trough over the SE Bahamas and
central Cuba. The front will slowly become stationary and linger
across the region through Wednesday providing for continued
precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered north of the
discussion area near 36N64W and supports a pair of cold fronts
that extend across the SW North Atlc region this evening. The
first cold front extends from 32N52W SW to 24N60W to 20N70W to
20N75W with scattered showers and tstms occurring within 240 nm
E of the front and within 120 nm W of the front. In addition...
scattered showers and tstms are noted S of the front W of 60W
including the adjacent Atlc coastal waters of Hispaniola...Puerto
Rico...and the Leeward Islands. The second cold front stems from a
storm-force 1000 mb low centered near 35N64W. The front enters the
discussion area near 32N59W to 28N63W to 26N71W. Isolated showers
are within 75 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the
remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of moderate
to fresh N-NE flow between the surface low and and surface high
pressure anchored across the eastern CONUS. Finally...the eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031
mb high centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 38N24W. One
exception to the ridging is a weakness analyzed as a surface
trough extending from 16N34W to 22N32W. The surface trough is
supported aloft by a middle to upper level low centered near
26N30W with isolated showers and tstms occurring from 14N-22N
between 29W-35W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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