[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N17W 05N30W
07N43W and 06N47W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 14N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level trough is moving into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation:
Areas of low level-to-middle level clouds and possible rainshowers
are moving from east to west, across the area.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow also covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 23N northward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH, KVAF, KEHC, KVOA, and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Hebbronville. light rain in Rockport. IFR in
Victoria. rain and thunder at the Ellington General Airport in
Houston. IFR from Sugar Land to the southern part of the Houston
metropolitan area, to the Houston Intercontinental Airport to
Tomball to Conroe to Huntsville. heavy rain in Beaumont/Port
Arthur. earlier drizzle in Jasper has ended for the moment.
LOUISIANA: light rain in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan
area. rain in Lafayette and New Iberia. from MISSISSIPPI to
FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak and remnant upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from the Windward Passage eastward. A surface trough is
along 72W/73W from 11N at the coast of Colombia to 19N in Haiti.
This trough and the large scale cyclonic wind flow have been in
this area more or less during the last few days, being associated
earlier with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 08N to 13N
between 70W and 73W in NW Venezuela, and around Colombia from 09N
to 13N between 73W and 77W.

An upper level trough is moving into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level W-to-SW wind
flow is to the east of the trough. Upper level SW is moving from
Colombia and Venezuela, into the central sections of the Caribbean
Sea. The wind flow eventually merges with the area of weak and
remnant cyclonic wind flow, that is from Windward Passage
eastward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
07/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.90 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective
precipitation: from 19N to 22N between 64W and the Windward
Passage including off the NE coast of Hispaniola, and from 16N to
20N between 66W and 71W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 07/0200 UTC:
rain. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings. few
cumulonimbus clouds, at 07/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo: rain and
thunder. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago and Puerto Plata: MVFR ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB and for 500 mb shows that SW
wind flow will move across the area during day one. A trough will
move across the area during day two, and the wind flow will become
NW after the trough moves across the area. The passage of the
trough at 500 mb will be comparatively more subtle and less-
pronounced than the passage of the trough at 250 mb.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow, with a
ridge, will move across the area during day one. Expect S-to-SW
wind flow, in a ridge, for day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 50W westward. An upper level trough that is in the area is
supporting a cold front that passes through 32N58W to a 1010 mb
low pressure center that is near 28N60W. A cold front continues
from the 1010 mb low center, to 25N62W, 23N70W, and 22N79W in
Cuba. Convective precipitation: in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
22N northward between 50W and 60W, from 19N to 22N between 64W and
the Windward Passage including off the NE coast of Hispaniola, and
in the Caribbean Sea from 16N to 20N between 66W and 71W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
between 50W and 70W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 22N northward
between 30W and 50W. This area of cyclonic wind flow supports a
stationary front that passes through 32N38W to a 1017 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N39W. The stationary front
continues from the 1017 mb low center, to 29N36W and 22N36W.
Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
from 20N to 26N between 30W and 40W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 50W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough have moved into
Africa mostly. Some residual deep layer cyclonic wind flow remains
from 15N northward and from 20W eastward. A surface trough is
along 31N10W to 28N18W to 25N17W. Rainshowers are possible from
17N northward from 20W eastward.

A central Atlantic Ocean surface ridge is along 20N50W to 27N45W
beyond 32N43W. A second surface ridge is in the eastern Atlantic
Ocean, from the Cabo Verde Islands to beyond 32N26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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