[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 7N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 6N28W 8N41W 9N50W to 8N59W. Scattered moderate
with embedded clusters of isolated strong convection are from
the ITCZ to 12N between 43W-52W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 7N-9N between 20W-26W and
from 3N-7N between 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low amplitude upper ridge extends from the Bay of
Campeche to the north Gulf coast near Mobile, Alabama. A diurnal
surface trough is in the southwest Gulf extending from 21N95W to
the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. A surface ridge extends from
the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1030 mb high
over Ohio and a weak 1021 mb high along the coast of Mexico near
Tuxpan. The westerly upper flow combining with the easterly
surface flow is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 25N west of 90W. Isolated low level
showers are in the Straits of Florida south of the Florida Keys
east of 86W. A surface trough is expected to form over the
northwest Gulf tonight and move slowly east through Wednesday,
becoming a closed surface low in the northeast Gulf Wednesday
night. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday
and shift rapidly across the Gulf waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad low amplitude ridge covers the Caribbean this evening.
At the surface is a surface trough that extends from Hispaniola
near 19N71W to off Colombia near 13N73W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are north of 15N west of 71W to over the
the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican
Republic. The surface trough will dissipate Monday. Fresh to
strong northeast winds are expected in the north-central
Caribbean Monday through Tuesday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface trough extends from over the island near 19N71W into
the central Caribbean generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic. Isolated showers are
possible across Haiti. This activity will continue through
Monday when the surface trough is expected to dissipate.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a cold
front that extends to 32N57W where it becomes stationary to a
1010 mb low centered near 28N64W then continues as a cold front
along 25N71W to 23N77W where it dissipates over Cuba to near
23N82W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
60 nm east of the front north of the low. An upper ridge to the
east of the upper trough is providing difflunce aloft to
generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from within 150/200 nm of a line from the Leeward
Islands near 16N61W along 24N59W to beyond 32N56W. A surface
ridge is building east from over the eastern CONUS into the west
Atlantic to the above frontal boundary, anchored by a 1030 mb
high over Ohio. A second surface ridge covers the east and
central Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high near 32N43W. A
remnant stationary front splits the above surface ridge along
32N36W to a weak 1016 mb low near 31N38W then continues along
27N36W to 23N41W. The west Atlantic cold front will become
stationary from near 32N57W along 22N61W to Hispaniola early
Monday. A second cold front will move into the west Atlantic
from the north Monday, then move southeast and merge with the
stationary front Monday night.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net