[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
07N12W. A surface trough is along 08N15W 04N18W. The ITCZ is along
05N18W 05N30W 06N41W 06N48W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the area that is from 30W eastward, across the area of the
ITCZ. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 10N southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through 32N74W to 27N78W, to 25N78W
and 21N75W near Cuba. A cold front passes through 32N71W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 28N82W, northwestward to the coast
of Louisiana along 92W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery to the N and NW of the trough, in
the Atlantic Ocean and in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: In the Atlantic Ocean and in the Gulf
of Mexico: to the north of the line that passes through 32N70W
26N76W 25N90W. A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along
70W with a 1012 mb low pressure center near 26N. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N to
32N between 63W and 70W.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface low pressure extends from the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico northwestward to the NE coast of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through
the coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KVAF and KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Edinburg. LIFR in Hebbronville. MVFR in Falfurrias,
Alice, at the NAS in Corpus Christi, in Victoria, Palacios, and Bay
City. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light
rain in Milton.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 31N63W
to 24N65W, across Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean Sea near 15N66W,
to 12N63W. A surface trough curves along 21N67W in the Atlantic
Ocean, across the eastern part of Hispaniola, to 16N71W in the
Caribbean Sea, to 11N71W jut to the NE of Lake Maracaibo in NW
Venezuela. Convective precipitation: rainshowers and thunder are
from 23N in the Atlantic Ocean southward, across Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico and in the coastal waters of those two islands, toward
South America, from 75W eastward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW and W wind flow covers much of the area that is
from 17N southward from 83W eastward. The wind flow is moving from
Central America and South America toward the E and NE.

24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 05/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in Curacao, 0.13 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area, in relation
to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers and thunder are from 23N in the
Atlantic Ocean southward, across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and in
the coastal waters of those two islands, toward South America,
from 75W eastward.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
thunder and rain. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. thunder and rain.
Santiago: MVFR fog. Puerto Plata: thunder and rain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during day one. W and SW wind flow will move
across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb
shows that variable but slightly anticyclonic wind flow will start
on day one, transitioning eventually into SW wind flow for the
rest of day one. W-to-SW wind flow will move across the area for
day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S-to-SW wind
flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during day one.
Expect more southerly wind flow, in a ridge, for day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N northward
between 37W and 55W. This is the area of cyclonic wind flow that
used to be associated with the gale-force winds from 24 hours ago
to 48 hours ago. A cold front passes through 32N38W to 24N40W and
20N43W. A surface trough continues from 20N43W to 17N48W.
Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are from 20N northward between 30W and
60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 20N
between 50W and 60W.

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N to 30N between 30W and 60W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough is along 33N18W 27N20W 02N28W. The trough
cuts across the area of the ITCZ. A surface trough passes through
32N17W, across the western sections of the Canary Islands, to
25N22W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N
northward from 22W eastward. broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward
from 30W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 17N northward
between 45W and 65W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near
27N56W. A surface ridge is along 14N39W 26N32W beyond 32N31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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