[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A surface trough is along 31N48W to a 1007 mb low pressure center
that is near 25N52W, to 18N63W in the Caribbean Sea, to a 1010 mb
low pressure center that is near 14N69W in the Caribbean Sea. S
to SW gale-force winds are present in the Atlantic Ocean, from 23N
to 26N within 120 nm to the E of the 1007 mb low pressure center
and trough. Expect sea heights to range from 10 feet to 15 feet.
the gale-force wind continues in the forecast for the next 36
hours or so. Please read the High Seas Forecast...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

A deep layer trough passes through 32N56W to 27N58W 20N62W 15N68W
10N69W in NW Venezuela. The trough extends from the Atlantic
Ocean, across Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean Sea, and into NW
Venezuela. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery to the north and northwest of the trough, in
the Atlantic Ocean, and in the Caribbean Sea across Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Cuba. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 32N between 44W and 52W
in the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated moderate from 14N to 19N between
50W and 60W elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate
to strong in the Caribbean Sea from 14N to 16N between 65W and
67W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 18N southward between 60W
and 70W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea also from 18N
southward from 70W to 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal waters of Mauritania near
16N16W to 14N18W. The ITCZ continues from 14N18W to 09N23W 08N30W
and 08N48W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that
is from 30W eastward, across the area of the ITCZ. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to
12N between 10W and 33W, and from 04N to 12N between 39W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 87W/88W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
northwestward to the coastal border of Texas and Mexico.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 27N southward from 94W westward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
everywhere away from the surface trough that is in the SW corner
of the area...to the NE of the line that runs from the deep south
of Texas to the Yucatan Peninsula.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KVAF and KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville. MVFR in Alice and at the NAS
Kingsville. MVFR in Victoria, Port Lavaca, Palacios, in Bay City.
IFR in Conroe. LIFR in Tomball. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lafayette,
Amelia/Lake Palourd, and Galliano. LIFR in Baton Rouge. IFR in
Hammond. LIFR in Slidell, MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb, in parts of
the Hattiesburg metropolitan area, in Gulfport and Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR in Cross City.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 14N northward between Puerto Rico and NW Cuba. This
drier air is associated with the upper level trough that extends
from the central Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 75W westward, away from the comparatively drier air and
the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough that is described in
the Special Feature section.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from northern Belize to
15N81W, in the waters that are to the east of eastern Honduras
and NE Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
land to 18N between 84W and land.

A second surface trough is along 16N78W, to a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is near 13N80W, to 10N80W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea also from 18N southward
from 70W to 83W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.07 in
Guadeloupe, 0.39 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level northerly wind flow is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
MVFR ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santiago: rain. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N and NW wind flow
will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the
area for the next 24 hours. Day two will consist of northerly wind
flow for the first half of the day. The second half of day two
will consist of some northerly wind, and then SW wind flow with
a trough to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during
day one. Day one will end with an inverted trough spanning the
area. Day two will start with the inverted trough across the area.
Southerly wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the
day, after the inverted trough moves southwestward.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N northward between 30W and 60W, to the east of the deep
layer Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Upper level
northerly wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence
cover the Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the 32N56W-
Puerto Rico-10N69W Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. This
trough is described in the Special Feature section.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough is along 32N24W 02N27W. The trough cuts across
the area of the ITCZ.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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