[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 09N26W, to 07N32W. The ITCZ continues from 07N32W
to 06N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N
southward from 40W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in south Texas near
29N100W. Upper level SW wind flow is within about 180 nm of the
coasts of Mexico and Texas.

An upper level ridge extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to SW
Louisiana. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico 24N96W
19N93W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 21N to
27N between 92W and the coast.

Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery to the
N of the line that passes through 23N80W in the Straits of
Florida, to SE Louisiana.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow from 24N northward from 95W
eastward.

A shear line is along 26N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Andros
Island in the Bahamas, to 23N83W and 22N89W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 30 nm to 60 nm on
either side of the shear line.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Hebbronville. MVFR in Victoria and Bay City. LOUISIANA:
MVFR in Patterson. LIFR in Galliano. IFR in Boothville, and at the
Joint Naval Air Station in New Orleans. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in
Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: LIFR in parts of
the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR in Brooksville. MVFR at
the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from Panama along 78W, northwestward,
beyond the Yucatan Channel.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
70W westward. An upper level ridge extends from 78W in Panama
beyond the Yucatan Channel.

A surface trough is within 90 nm of the coast of Central America
from 81W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 18N87W near the
Mexico and Belize.

Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 13N southward from 75W westward. Numerous strong in
Honduras and Nicaragua from 13N to 15N between 83W and 86W.
Scattered strong from 18N southward from 85W westward. The monsoon
trough is along 10N73W in Colombia, to 09N78W in Panama, beyond
09N84W in Costa Rica.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 1.33 in
Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola at this
moment. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate
isolated to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea from 16N to 21N between 60W and 73W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for PORT-AU-PRINCE in HAITI: VFR/scattered
cumulonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: in Barahona...
thunder and rain. Santo Domingo: thunder and rain. La Romana:
VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: thunder and rain. cumulonimbus clouds
in Santo Domingo. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling, few cumulonimbus
clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
cover Hispaniola for the next 2 days. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 mb shows that NW and N wind flow will move across the area for
during the next few days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 2
days. An upper level trough will be to the E and SE of Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is passing through 32N63W to 27N64W 25N69W
24N74W and 23N80W. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water
vapor imagery to the N and NW of the trough. A surface trough is
along 31N62W 27N66W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 28N to 32N between 58W and 62W.
A cold front passes through 32N68W to 31N74W. A stationary front
continues from 31N74W beyond 32N77W.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N47W, to 23N51W, 13N57W,
to NE Venezuela. A surface trough is along 34N47W, to a 1014 mb
low pressure center that is near 30N48W, 26N50W 23N52W, to a 1007
mb low pressure center that is near 20N66W, across Hispaniola, to
SW Haiti. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong
from 27N to 30N between 39W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 20N northward between 39W and 50W, and from
13N to 23N between 50W and 62W. Widely scattered moderate isolated
to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea
from 16N to 21N between 60W and 73W. A second surface trough is
along 22N47W 17N49W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 15N to 18N between 52W and 55W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N14W in the eastern
Atlantic Ocean, to 22N23W, to 15N31W, 08N42W, to northern
Suriname. A surface trough is along 19N37W 15N38W 13N40W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 17N to 20N between 35W and
37W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N
between 37W and 39W. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 480 nm on
either side of the trough.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 00N
northward from 44W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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