[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 27N72W and is currently
interacting with a broad upper-level trough, supporting
scattered moderate convection within 180 nm of the northern
semicircle of the low. A surface trough extends from 29N70w, to
the low, to 24N73W. Environmental conditions are generally
conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later
today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward
toward the southeastern United States coast. There is a high
chance for this system to develop into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information on this
system, please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging off of the coast of West Africa with
the axis extending from 17N17W to 05N18W.  The wave has a well-
defined 700 mb trough axis as seen in the GFS analysis and the
couple of West African rawindsondes.  The wave also has a
prominent maximum of moisture along its axis, as depicted by the
total precipitable water imagery.  Scattered moderate convection
is present within 60 nm of the wave axis south of 08N.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with an axis
that extends from 14N50W to 03N50W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. This wave has become difficult to track
and only is weakly apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave
diagnostics at 700 mb. No significant deep convection is present
currently associated with the wave.

A third tropical wave is located near the Windward Islands,
extending from 16N62W to 07N62W.  The wave is associated with a
maximum of moisture and surface to 850 mb cyclonic curvature of
the winds, though it is not apparent at 700 mb.  Scattered
moderate convection may be associated with the wave over
northern Colombia.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ begins near 05N19W and continues to 02N33W then to
05N47W. An area of scattered moderate convection prevails within
60 nm of the ITCZ east of 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends along the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico from the Florida peninsula to Texas.  Winds are generally
northeast to easterly 10-15 kt in the eastern Gulf and southeast
to southerly 15-20 kt in the western Gulf, peaking at 20-25 kt
along the Texas coast. Only widely scattered showers are
occurring within 120 nm of the Texas and southwest Florida
coasts.  Winds will further diminish over the next two days
across the Gulf.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are possible over the northwestern Gulf today, but less likely
on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is
helping to induce scattered moderate convection near Jamaica,
the southern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and Haiti.  A 1009 mb low
that anchors the Northeast Pacific's Monsoon Trough is located
near 11N75W in the southwestern Caribbean.  Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the low. The usual robust north-
to-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is substantially
reduced, and the resulting tradewinds are only 10-15 kt across
the Caribbean, except 20 kt near the coast of Colombia.  The
combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the
approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands
may produce scattered to numerous moderate convection with
isolated to scattered deep convection over the central Caribbean
including the Greater Antilles during the next two days.  The
tradewinds will remain relatively weak through Saturday.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over Haiti.  The
combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the
approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands
may produced scattered to numerous moderate convection with
isolated to scattered deep convection over Hispaniola during the
next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on a low near
27N72W.  Elsewhere, surface ridging extends across the North
Atlantic from near the coast of North Carolina to a 1023 mb high
centered near 35N69W to 32N49W. The resulting modest pressure
gradient equatorward of the ridge is generally producing 10-20
kt tradewind easterlies.  Numerous cold, high clouds are
observed between 10N-20N east of 45W.  However, it is likely
that few showers are occurring below this primarily cirrus
cloudiness.  A weak 1014 mb low is centered at 28N30W with a
cold front extending west from the low to 31N41W.  Scattered
showers are located within 120 nm of the low.  Continued
relatively weak tradewinds and a lack of large-scale convection
are expected during the next couple of days.  The frontal low
should dissipate within a day or so.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LANDSEA/RAMOS
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