[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis
approximately extending from 08N18W to 01S18W and moving W at 10
kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is
in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850
mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support
isolated showers within 200 NM either side of the wave axis,
except in its NW environment.

Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
approximately extending from 10N38W to 01N40W and moving W at 10
kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and associated
relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave axis from
05N to 08N. Saharan Air Layer and CIRA layer precipitable water
imagery from the surface to 850 mb show low moisture in the way
environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear hinder
convection at the time.

Tropical wave is over the far SE Caribbean with axis
approximately extending from 14N61W to 04N61W and moving W at 15
kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery from the surface to
850 mb show moderate moisture in its environment supporting
showers S of Granada and adjacent W and E waters. Further
convection is being hindered in part by strong deep layer wind
shear in the region.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
06N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N22W to 03N38W then resumes W of a tropical wave from 03N42W
to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N
between the Prime Meridian and 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad middle to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS and
the western Atlantic with base extending to the NE Gulf waters
supports a 1007 mb low offshore of N Carolina from which a cold
front stretches SW across the central Florida peninsula to
27N82W and then into Gulf waters to 27N86W. From there, the
front transitions to a stationary front to 28N91W to Texas
adjacent waters near 27N95W. Divergent flow aloft between the
base of the upper trough and westerly wind across the remainder
basin along with moisture inflow from the Caribbean support
scattered moderate/isolated strong convection and thunderstorms
from 24N to 28N between 87W and 96W. Otherwise... the remainder
of the Gulf is under the influence of gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow as a weak ridge anchored by a 1015 mb high is
centered near 25N86W. The weak cold front will move across the
southern Florida peninsula through Monday before sunrise.
Thereafter through Tuesday...moderate to occasional E-SE flow is
forecast across the western Gulf waters as low pressure develops
across the central plains.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remains
relatively strong due to a ridge anchored across the central
Atlc and lower pressure noted across northern South America. The
gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong trades across
the basin with the strongest winds occurring across the south-
central portion of the basin. The high is expected to prevail
and strengthen, thus maintaining the tight gradient and the area
of fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Tuesday. A middle level trough is over the
western Caribbean providing lifting of abundant moisture in the
region to support scattered showers and tstms along Cuba.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also noted over central
Haiti. Otherwise...fairly tranquil conditions prevail across the
remainder of the Caribbean with only a few isolated showers and
tstms occurring in the far SE basin as a tropical wave moves
across the windward islands.

...HISPANIOLA...

A middle level trough over the western Caribbean with base S of
Jamaica along with shallow moisture across the region support
isolated showers and thunderstorms over central Haiti and
northern Hispaniola waters. A moist airmass is forecast to enter
the island from the S near Monday sunrise and will likely
enhance showers in the afternoon hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS and
the western Atlantic with base extending to the NE Gulf waters
supports a 1007 mb low offshore of N Carolina from which a cold
front stretches SW from 30N76W to 28N80W. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough extends from 30N75W to 25N78W and supports a line
of showers and thunderstorms N of 26N between 73W and 76W.
Farther northeast...a deep layered low is centered over the
central North Atlc and supports a cold front analyzed from
30N41W to 29N45W where it becomes stationary to 30N50W. Possible
isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front.
Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered near 27N36W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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