[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 5N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 3N30W 3N43W then across the equator and inland
over South America near 51W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 150 NM along coast Liberia Africa
west of 10W to the border of Sierra Leone. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-6N east of
17W to the Prime Meridian and from 4N-7N between 30W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shortwave upper trough extends from Alabama across the
northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Florida Keys. An outflow
boundary extends from 26N89W along 24N84W to the Florida Keys
near 25N81W. This is giving the the east Gulf scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms east of 88W. A second shortwave upper
trough is over west Texas to northeast Mexico generating
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms inland and within 120
NM along the coast of Texas south of Galveston. A weak surface
ridge covers the far east Gulf anchored in the west Atlantic.
This weak surface ridge will shift east tonight as a weak cold
front approaches the north gulf and then stalls Wednesday and
dissipates through Thursday. A surface ridge over the west
Atlantic will build south-southwest over the north Gulf Thursday
night and Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Northwest to west flow aloft dominates the Caribbean tonight.
The remnants of a diurnal surface trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula is generating Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms inland with scattered showers over the
northwest Caribbean from 20N-21.5N west of 85W. Isolated showers
are possible over the southwest Caribbean south of line from
Nicaragua near 14N84W to Colombia near 10N76W. Surface ridge
over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
primarily over the Gulf of Honduras and the central Caribbean
through Friday. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Lingering moisture and possible isolated showers remain across
the island tonight. Moisture will remain limited through Friday
but afternoon showers and thunderstorms could still develop due
to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge extends from Hispaniola over the west Atlantic to
beyond 32N68W with a surface ridge bridging a weak stationary
front that extends through 32N56W along 31N66W to 32N78W to
inland over Georgia near 32N81W. The shortwave upper trough over
the east Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N west of 76W to
inland over the SE CONUS including the Florida peninsula. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge
anchored by a 1033 mb high southwest of the Azores. The west
Atlantic surface ridge will shift eastward through Friday. A
weak cold front will move across the northern waters of the west
Atlantic Wednesday and Wednesday night then across the north
central Atlantic Thursday through Friday before stalling Friday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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