[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151703
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
103 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF
OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE ITCZ
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715
UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR,
NEAR COAST, EARLY TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS: MARINE...
BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE
WEBSITE: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND REACHES
THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST
OF WESTERN AFRICA FROM 11N16W TO 03N17W.  THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N19W TO 03N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 17W-21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
NEAR 30N81W TO SOUTH OF HOUSTON TEXAS NEAR 29N95W.  RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM 24N- 30N BETWEEN
95W-102W.  THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF 95W.  FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 27N.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN FROM
09N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF 70W, OVER PUERTO RICO, AND HISPANIOLA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO ST.
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 69W-74W.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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