[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NEAR GALE TO GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 04N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N33W TO 04N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-10N AND E OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS N OF 31N
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS FROM 29N96W TO 30N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF
THE BASIN...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 21N96W WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT...WHILE THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS
FROM 23N91W TO 18N92W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. TO THE E...A WEAK 1018 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N85W. S OF THIS HIGH...AN AREA
IF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND
88W SUPPORTED BY MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE WHILE WEAKENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GENERATED BY THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 66W AND 78W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PULSE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES STRONGER.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W
ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 65W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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