[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE EAST
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N11W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W 4N28W 4N37W TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR 3N46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N48W TO 1N47W. A
SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N36W TO 5N37W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF 24W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
WEST ATLANTIC ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS IS CREATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N96W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 18N94W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
GULF THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES EAST TEXAS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY FRI, THEN EXIT THE
GULF FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE WEST
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 79W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN EAST OF 73W. WEDGE
BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES IS A NARROW UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS, OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA AND THE GULF OF URABA. THE UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DRAWING UPPER MOISTURE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 66W-74W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N61W TO 13N62W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE WEST CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE THE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA AND THE GULF OF URABA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
BEFORE WEAKENING AND FLATTENING OUT BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WEST CARIBBEAN
NARROWS AS IT ENTERS THE WEST ATLANTIC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 31N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WEST ATLANTIC
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N72W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM 27N80W ALONG 31N80W TO BEYOND
32N78W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W ALONG 24N70W
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THEN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
29N67W TO 24N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W. THE
WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THU
BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
S FLORIDA ON FRI. A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEST
ATLANTIC THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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