[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N17W AND 04N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
04N20W TO 03N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 02N03W 05N14W 05N30W 06N40W 06N54W 07N58W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 01N TO 09N. ANY NEARBY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
62W WESTWARD...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 84W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 84W
EASTWARD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N84W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED IN MCALLEN A FEW HOURS AGO.
LIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ALICE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THUNDER WAS BEING REPORTED IN KINGSVILLE. LIGHT
RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST HOUR IN ROBSTOWN...AND IN
THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LIGHT RAIN IN VICTORIA...AND IN PALACIOS AN HOUR AGO. LIGHT RAIN
IN SUGARLAND...AND IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.
FLORIDA...LIFR AT TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR PANAMA CITY. IFR
IN PERRY. THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT REPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...VFR NOW.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W 26N64W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N68W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N64W 15N63W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N73W IN NORTHWESTERN HAITI...
TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO 16N75W 14N75W AND 12N74W ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 78W
MOSTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A BIT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 24N62W
20N63W.

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT
TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 8000
FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR
CEILING...AT 1600 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE CUTTING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...OR DRIFTING AND RE-
POSITIONING ITSELF JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM HALFWAY THROUGH DAY ONE
AND IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...SENDING SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE MONA PASSAGE. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL
START FROM THE SOUTH. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING DAY ONE...FIRST GIVING HISPANIOLA SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW...AND THEN FINALLY WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-
EAST BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 30N09W...TO THE COASTAL
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
27N20W...AND 28N28W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N28W
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 43W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 21N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N53W...TO
09N59W...NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N66W TO 28N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO
A 1019 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N84W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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