[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO S
FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N84W WILL MOVE
E. THE 12 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
31N75W TO 23N80W. EXPECT N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT S TO
SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH 06 HOURS LATER OR 1800 UTC THIS EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W TO 01N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
01N35W AND EXTENDS TO 01N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
09N48W TO 00N48W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS
TO BRAZIL AT 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-
06N BETWEEN 08W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AT 23N84W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM E OF FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N95W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
24N. AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF FROM
TAMPICO MEXICO S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 18N. 10-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 20-25 KT SW FLOW IS E OF FRONT
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 09 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N84W TO
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W TO N GUATEMALA AT 16N89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS...S GUATEMALA...AND EL
SALVADOR. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NORTH COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E
HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N78W TO S FLORIDA
AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 71W-79W.
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W. A 1009
MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N14W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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