[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W AND 03N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
03N21W TO 03N34W 05N43W 03N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 08N FROM 42W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH GEORGIA
INTO FLORIDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 19N96W...AND THEN INLAND
TO 19N98W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INLAND IN
MEXICO FROM 19N98W TO 24N100W 30N105W...AND BEYOND NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 26N90W 27N88W 29N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO
FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 86W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KEHC...
KVQT...KGHB...KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. VFR/NO
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR AT THE
STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ALABAMA...MVFR BETWEEN
MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN
MARY ESTHER AND IN VALPARAISO...MVFR IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ELSEWHERE. THUNDER IS NEAR MARIANNA. TOWERING CUMULUS ARE AT THE
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
73W WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA FROM 73W EASTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W
TO27N72W TO 24N72W...TO PUERTO RICO...TO 16N67W AND 12N69W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W...
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.97 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.96 IN TRINIDAD...0.37 IN MONTEGO BAY IN
JAMAICA...0.35 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.11 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
HISPANIOLA IS ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONC
WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 66W/67W TROUGH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 2700 FEET. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
AT 1800 FEET. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MVMR CONDITIONS. PUNTA CANA...
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. SANTIAGO...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.
PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO
27N72W TO 24N72W...TO PUERTO RICO...TO 16N67W AND 12N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND
78W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N62W 30N64W 27N65W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MARK THIS BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N52W 28N55W 27N57W 22N58W.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MARK THIS BOUNDARY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N44W 26N43W 22N42W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT.

A FOURTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N37W 19N37W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
30W AND 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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