[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N12W CONTINUING TO 02N18W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N18W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 03N30W TO 02N40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 06N41W TO
01S40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 05N
BETWEEN 07W AND 30W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N
TO 06N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N91W TO 26N95W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N90W TO 25N93W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE N-NE GULF
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW BASIN N OF 26N WHILE THE GOES IFR AND LIFR
SHOW MAINLY MEDIUM FOG PROBABILITIES EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH NE AND SE WINDS
ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...THEN THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND SE BASIN
THROUGH THU MORNING WHEN THE FRONT MOVE OFF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG WITH
AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
ADJACENT WATERS. GOES LIGHTING DENSITY DATA SHOW ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CUBA
AND ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES COVERS THE BASIN AS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ON THU MORNING A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC BY SE FLOW SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH S OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W ALONG WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 22N
BETWEEN 42W AND 62W. TWO 1017 MB LOW PRES CENTERS LINGERS IN THE
BASIN...ONE NEAR 23N57W AND THE OTHER NEAR 24N39W. NONE WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
ELSEWHERE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. NEW CONVECTION
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
COASTS TUE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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