[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING, including in the Gulf of Venezuela
in about 06 hours...

The 6-hour forecast consists of northeast-to-east gale-force
winds from 11N to 14N between 70W and 76W, including in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Expect also sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12
feet, except to 8 feet in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 06N to 16N between 17W and
24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 KNOTS. A surface trough is along
07N33W 10N38W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from the equator to 10N between 26W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N to 14N between 45W
and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W from 17N southward
moving westward 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 14N to 17N between 58W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 KNOTS. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N78W in
Panama, beyond 10N85W in Costa Rica. Convective precipitation:
Numerous strong in Panama and Costa Rica, and from northwestern
Venezuela to northern Colombia from 08N to 10N between 72W and
76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 10N18W. The ITCZ starts from 10N20W to 08N23W and
08N27W, from 04N32W to 08N47W. No other significant convective
precipitation, except that which is associated with the tropical
waves.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
Mexico near 19N104W. A weak upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 23N85W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the 19N104W-to-24N95W trough
and the to the north and northwest of the cyclonic wind flow that
is moving around the weak 23N85W cyclonic center. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is along the Texas coast near 27N98W,
to the east of Falfurrias. A surface trough extends from the
Florida Big Bend, across extreme southeastern Louisiana, to a 1014
MB low pressure center that is near 28N91W, to 96W along the Texas
Gulf coast from 28N to 29N. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico in
much of the area that covered by the upper level anticyclonic wind
flow. Numerous strong in Florida from 25N to 29N within 30 NM on
either side of 81W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain has ended temporarily in Harlingen. Rain and
thunder have ended temporarily in Brownsville. Light rain has
ended in Port Lavaca and Palacios. LOUISIANA: light rain around
the northeastern corner of Lake Pontchartrain. MVFR in Boothville.
MISSISSIPPI: Rain and thunder are near the Stennis International
Airport. MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: Rain and thunder in Mobile.
MVFR in Gulf Shores. Rain in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR in Mary
Esther, in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area, and in
Apalachicola.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 65W WESTWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A middle level to upper level trough extends from a 22N72W
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola,
into the south central part of the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers most of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: Scattered strong from 76W northwestward. Rainshowers
are possible from 18N northward between 60W in the Caribbean Sea
and 74W in the Atlantic Ocean.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.35 in
Trinidad, 0.19 in Bermuda, 0.13 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and
0.01 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the island,
with the upper level trough from the 22N72W cyclonic center into
the south central Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: few cumulonimbus
clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: few
cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Punta Cana: light rain.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current trough
and cyclonic wind flow, that are cutting across Hispaniola from
the Atlantic Ocean, will remain across the area for the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that south-to-
southeast wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola for the next
48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that east- to-
southeast wind flow will cover the area for the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 35N41W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from
60W eastward. A surface trough is along 31N41W 28N47W. Rainshowers
are possible from 26N to 30N between 40W and 50W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
mt
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