[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270442
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N32W to 13N31W moving W at 20 kt. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 28W-40W and
remains in Saharan dust across the eastern tropical Atlc. As a
result...no significant deep convection is occurring with the wave
at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 04N81W to 14N80W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing over the SW
Caribbean Sea between 75W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N-17N between 79W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
07N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N24W to 06N32W to 06N37W to 09N54W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-07N between 21W-29W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-11N between 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends from 23N91W to 27N88W and continues to
provide focus for isolated showers across the central waters this
evening. Otherwise...a 1019 mb surface high is centered across the
NE Gulf waters near 28N86W and provides for the overall synoptic
flow of gentle to moderate E-SE winds. These conditions are expected
through Tuesday. Thereafter for Tuesday night into Wednesday...the
ridge axis will move slightly southward to along 26N as an area of
lower pressure develops across the coastal plain of the SE CONUS.
A weak frontal trough is expected to extend from southern Georgia
to the Texas coast near Galveston on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 16N84W and along with a tropical wave along 81W is providing
the necessary low-level and upper level lifting dynamics to
generate scattered showers and tstms from 09N-17N between 79W-86W.
Otherwise...to the E...an upper level low is centered NE of
Puerto Rico near 21N63W with broad troughing extending over much
of the central Caribbean to 80W. While water vapor imagery
indicate dry air and stable conditions associated with the
troughing...a narrow band of cloudiness and possible isolated
showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of a
line from 16N61W to 12N68W. In addition...a few isolated showers
and tstms are noted in the adjacent coastal waters off Cuba that
continue to gradually dissipate. Otherwise...moderate to fresh
trade prevail across most of the basin this evening. One exception
is fresh to strong trades generally S of 16N between 70W-81W due
to a strengthen pressure gradient across the region.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently skies remain mostly clear as NW flow aloft prevails.
Peak daytime heating and instability on Monday are expected to
generate isolated showers and tstms late afternoon into the early
evening across portions of the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface ridge prevails across much of the basin anchored by a
1037 mb high centered N of the Azores near 43N29W. Within the far
western periphery of the ridge...a weak stationary front is
analyzed from 32N71W to the Georgia coast near 31N81W. Isolated
showers are occurring N of 29N between 60W-72W within gentle to
moderate SE winds. Elsewhere a weak surface trough is analyzed
from 17N53W to 21N51W and is providing focus for isolated showers
from 16N-23N between 50W-55W as this energy moves W during the
next 24 hours.For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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