[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
40W/41W from 4N-10N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 8N-10N between 38W-45W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
51W/52W from 3N-10N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 7N-10N between 45W-61W.

Tropical wave is in the Caribbean extending along 79W/80W from
19N to over Panama moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global
models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides of the
trough axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W along 9N22W to 7N26W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 5N33W to east of the first tropical wave
near 5N39W, resumes west of the wave near 5N41W to east of the
next tropical wave near 6N50W, then resumes west of the wave
near 6N53W to South America near 6N55W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 5N-9N between 10W-20W and from 4N-
7N between 27W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over southeast Oklahoma with a ridge
axis extending east across Georgia into the far west Atlantic.
The upper trough over the west Atlantic has developed a cutoff
upper low over the south Gulf near the northwest tip of the
Yucatan peninsula covering the Gulf south of 26N east of 84W and
is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 23N
between 90W-96W. The upper trough is supporting a dissipating
stationary front that extends across the Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida near 25N80W. Lingering moisture over the southeast
Gulf is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of 25N east of 86W. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf
extending from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to a
1020 mb high near 29N85W then to the southeast Texas/northeast
Mexico coast. Surface ridge will persist through the remainder
of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper low over the south Gulf of Mexico covers the west
Caribbean west of 82W while an upper ridge anchored near the ABC
Islands covers the remainder of the Caribbean. This is creating
a diffluent environment over the west Caribbean to generate
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 18N
west of 81W to over Central America. This is also enhancing the
activity associated with the tropical wave. Tropical wave will
move across the west Caribbean tonight through Wednesday night.
Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage across the
east and central Caribbean through Wednesday then gradually
shift westward across the remainder of the basin through the
end of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are diminishing across the island tonight with
skies beginning to clear. Lingering moisture and daytime heating
could still produce isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
and Thursday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge that extends across the southeast CONUS into the
west Atlantic over Georgia to 30N77W. An upper trough extends
across the west Atlantic through 32N66W to south Florida near
Fort Lauderdale supporting a dissipating stationary front that
extends across Bermuda along 29N70W to 27N76W to 25N80w. A
surface trough is south of the front extending from 28N72W
across the the Bahamas to 22N76W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 22N-27N between 73W-78W. A surface ridge
extends through 32N72W across northeast Florida into the Gulf
of Mexico. The remainder of the Atlantic east of the front is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high near
35N49W. West Atlantic front will gradually dissipate through
Thursday night as a surface ridge builds across the area. The
west Atlantic surface trough will move west across the remainder
of the Bahama Islands through Wednesday night while weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net