[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
39W from 03N-11N moving west around 15 kt during the past 24
hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Animated water vapor
imagery suggests weak upper-level convergence is limiting the
associated coverage of convection to isolated moderate from 06N
to 10N between 39W and 44W.

Tropical wave over the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 50W
from 03N-10N moving west around 15 kt during the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 52W and 62W.
Isolated moderate convection is found from 03N to 09N between
46W and 57W.

Tropical wave over the central Caribbean extends from NW of
Colombia near 11N77W to just S of Jamaica near 17N77W moving
west around 20 kt during the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with
a broad 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded
within a large area of deep moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is currently situated
beneath an area of divergent upper-level winds to the east of an
upper-level trough over the western Caribbean. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring over the
Caribbean between Jamaica and Colombia from 10N to 17N between
74W and 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N19W to 06N23W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 04N32W to east of the first tropical wave near
05N37W, resumes west of the first wave near 05N40W to east of
the second tropical wave near 05N48W, then resumes west of the
second wave near 06N51W to South America near 06N58W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is present W of Sierra Leone
in Africa from 06N to 08N between 15W and 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Danielle have dissipated over the mountains of
southern Mexico. Some leftover showers and thunderstorms remain
over the far southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico from
near Tampico to Coatzalcoalcos. Weak surface troughing is
producing isolated convection just N of the Straits of Yucatan
from 22N to 24N. Otherwise...broad ridging extending
southwestward from the Florida Big Bend is maintaining fair
weather over the remainder of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends southeastward from the Yucatan
Peninsula over the western Caribbean. An upper-level ridge
presides over the Caribbean east of 80W. A tropical wave over
the central Caribbean is interacting with divergent upper-level
winds east of the trough to produce scattered moderate isolated
strong convection mainly between Jamaica and Colombia from 10N
to 17N between 74W and 79W. Please see the tropical waves
section for more details on the tropical wave. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection associated with the monsoon
trough covers the far southwestern Caribbean near the coasts of
Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Convection associated with the
tropical wave will shift westward over the western Caribbean
during the next couple of days. Convection associated with the
monsoon trough will linger over the far SW Caribbean during the
same time frame.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave moving westward away from Jamaica is still
producing isolated convection over the Dominican Republic.
Shower coverage will be decreasing during the next few days as
the tropical wave moves away. Showers and thunderstorms could
still fire up on Wednesday afternoon due to daytime heating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stalled frontal boundary is serving as the focus for showers
and thunderstorms over extreme southern Florida and the Bahama
Islands. Scattered moderate convection is present along the
front and southward to just north of Cuba and Hispaniola. The
front will weaken and retreat slowly toward the northwest as it
evolves into a surface trough during the next couple of days.
Shower coverage associated with the front and trough will
decrease accordingly during this time frame.

Otherwise...the weather over the remainder of the Atlc remains
relatively quiet. A high pressure ridge extends west-
southwestward from just W of the Iberian Peninsula through a
1032 mb surface high centered SW of the Azores near 39N42W to N
of Puerto Rico near 25N66W. The high is maintaining fair weather
and moderate to fresh trades generally from 10N to 25N between
20W and 65W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
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