[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 21.2N 97.4W at 21/0000
UTC or about 10 nm N of Tuxpan Mexico moving W at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 17N-25N between 93W-101W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N35W to 10N34W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave position is based on long-term IR satellite imagery and
extrapolation during the past few days. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 03N46W to 10N44W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with
broad and subtle 700 mb troughing between 40W-50W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 43W-48W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N68W to 19N67W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing noted between 67W-73W on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the
SW North Atlc region along 63W to over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-22N between 64W-73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N25W to 06N28W to 06N40W to 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 04N-06N between 09W-12W...from 07N-10N between 18W-21W...
and from 02N-07N between 40W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The main focus in the basin is Tropical Storm Danielle continuing
to impact the southwestern Gulf waters and inland portions of
east-central Mexico this evening. Elsewhere...water vapor imagery
indicates a middle to upper level trough extending from over the
SW North Atlc region westward to over the eastern Gulf supporting
a surface trough boundary extending from 23N84W to 28N92W. Most of
the low-level moisture convergence and instability is across the
SE Gulf with isolated showers and tstms occurring S of 25N E of
88W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of surface
ridging anchored across the SE CONUS on a 1026 mb high centered
across northern Alabama. The ridging is providing moderate
easterly flow that is expected to persist through Wednesday night.
Thereafter the ridge will shift east and with generally moderate
to occasional fresh E-SE flow Thursday through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main features across the basin is a tropical wave along 68W
bringing scattered showers and tstms to a large portion of the
central Caribbean between 64W-73W...including Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Most of this convection comes under the influence of
not only the low-level moisture convergence associated with the
wave but middle to upper level diffluence on the eastern periphery
of an upper level trough extending over Cuba and Jamaica to a base
near 12N75W. A reinforcing upper level trough is to the north of
Cuba and continues to provide extra support aloft for widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring across Cuba...
Jamaica...and the adjacent coastal waters N of 18N between 77W-
86W. Across the SW Caribbean...the Monsoon Trough axis extends
across Panama and is providing focus for scattered showers and
tstms generally W of a line from NE Nicaragua near 15N83W to
northern Colombia near 09N76W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A tropical wave along 68W is providing scattered showers and tstms
this evening across the island and will provide the region with
increased probability of precipitation the next few days as most
of the energy associated with the wave and an upper level trough
over the NW Caribbean with an axis near 66W move W-NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low is centered over the western North
Atlc near 36N69W that supports a 1019 mb low near Bermuda. A cold
front extends from the low to 27N70W then becomes stationary to
the Florida Straits near 24N80W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring S of 26N W of 76W...and east of the front from 18N-30N
between 63W-73W. The southern extent of this convection is likely
energy fracturing north away from a tropical wave along 68W in the
Caribbean Sea. The front is expected to become diffuse through
early Wednesday as ridging builds in from west moving off the SE
coast of the CONUS. Farther east...the remainder of the central
and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 33N46W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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