[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 200851
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that it has not
strengthened, with no increase in flight-level winds and no
significant fall in central pressure since the last mission on
Sunday afternoon.  Data from the aircraft show some elongation of
the circulation from northwest to southeast, and this elongation was
also suggested in a recent ASCAT overpass as well as in recent GFS
model surface wind forecasts.  Very cold cloud tops developed near
the center, but the area of convection is rather shapeless with
little evidence of banding features.  The current intensity is held
at 30 kt.  There is now only a short time remaining for
strengthening but since the shear has relaxed somewhat over the
system, it could still become a tropical storm before reaching the
coast.  The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest
LGEM guidance.  After landfall, weakening over the mountainous
terrain of eastern Mexico is likely, and the system should dissipate
on Tuesday.

A slow westward motion, at around 280/6 kt, continues.  The track
forecast and its reasoning are the same as in the previous package.
The cyclone is expected to continue to move generally westward to
the south of a large mid-level high pressure area.  The official
forecast track is close to the latest dynamical model consensus.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with
this system.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico over the next couple
of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 20.2N  95.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 20.2N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/0600Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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