[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

At 2100 UTC, the low pressure center located over the Bay of
Campeche has become the Tropical Depression Four, located near
19.9N/94.7W and moving west near 7 kt. The central pressure
reported by the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009
mb. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with gusts near 40 kt.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail S of 25N
and W of 91W. Some slight strengthening is expected, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early
Monday. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E tropical Atlantic south of the
Cape Verde Islands with axis extending from 11N26W to 03N28W,
moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave coincides
with minimal 700 mb troughing between 25W and 30W according to the
GFS model. Upper-level winds above this feature are unfavorable
for convection to develop.

A tropical wave is over the E tropical Atlantic with axis from
11N36W to 01N39W, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 25W and 40W
according to the GFS model. Divergent upper-level winds in the
vicinity of the wave are supporting isolated moderate convection
from 03N-07N between 37W-45W.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis from
17N60W to 09N62W, moving W at 20 kt during the past 24 hours.
Divergent upper-level winds in the vicinity of the wave are
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters from 10N-19N between
56W-67W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
from 19N68W to 11N69W, moving W at 15-20 kt during the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 65W
and 70W according to the GFS model. Isolated moderate convection
prevails within 50 nm on either side of the wave's axis affecting
the Windward Passage, western Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
04N26W. The ITCZ axis begins near 04N26W and continues to 01N49W.
Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves, no
significant convection is associated with these boundaries at this
time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D. Four has developed over the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to
the section above for details. To the E, a weakening stationary
front stretches from 30N89W to 27N82W. The boundary transitions
into a cold front across the Florida Peninsula with convection
affecting the eastern Gulf waters mainly E of 82W. The front is
expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. The proximity of the Monsoon
Trough near Panama is inducing scattered moderate convection S of
11N between 78W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin, with higher speeds between 70W-80W.
Expect for the waves to continue moving west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISolated convection is observed across the island at this time. A
tropical wave will move over the area enhancing convection within
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 26N80W into
a 1016 mb low near 30N67W. Isolated convection is observed along
and S of the front between 65W-80W. Two tropical waves were
analyzed over the Tropical Atlantic. Please see the section above
for details. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1032 mb high near 38N25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net