[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A surface low pressure has formed along the northwestern coast of
the Yucatan peninsula near 20N91W. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms is S of 22N between 90W-94W. This low is
forecast to move slowly to the west-northwestward during the next
couple of days across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system
has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E tropical Atlantic with axis from
10N22W to 03N24W, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 16W and 28W
according to the GFS model. No significant convection is related
to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is over the W tropical Atlantic with axis from
13N52W to 05N54W, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 50W and 60W
according to the GFS model and visible satellite imagery depicts
the classic inverted V pattern. Isolated convection is observed within
the wave between 50W-57W.

A tropical wave is crossing the Windward Islands with axis from
16N59W to 09N61W, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 58W-66W according to
the GFS model. Isolated convection prevails within this wave
between 60W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
07N22W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N24W to 05N31W.
The ITCZ axis continues from 05N31W to 04N51W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is located from 03N-06N between 27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface low has formed along the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Please see the special features section for details.
To the E, a 1018 mb surface high is centered near 25N85W. A
pre-frontal trough extends across the northeastern Gulf waters
from 29N91W to 28N86W to 29N84W. A cold front extends across
northern Florida enhancing convection across the peninsula.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate easterly flow
across the western Gulf while a gentle to moderate westerly flow
prevails east of 90W. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail
during the next 24 hours, with convection prevailing over the
southwest and northeast portions of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface low pressure along the W coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula is supporting scattered moderate convection across the
W Caribbean W of 82W. The only feature of interest at this time is
the tropical wave that is currently moving across the Lesser
Antilles. Please refer to the section above for details.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west across
the area during the next 24 hours. Another wave will approach the
E Caribbean with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low-level moisture transported by the trades is moving across the
island generating isolated showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will dissipate in the evening hours. Afternoon convection
is expected once again on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 30N81W to 1011 mb
low near 31N71W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are observed along and S of the frontal boundary affecting the
Atlantic waters W of 68W. Three tropical waves were analyzed
across the basin. PLease refer to the section above for details.
The remainder of the basin is under a surface ridge anchored by a
1034 mb high near 40N20W. Expect for the cold front to continue
enhancing convection across the W Atlantic during the next 24
hours. Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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