[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlc tropical wave extends from 12N39W to 04N41W moving
W at 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with
broad 700 mb troughing noted in global model fields between 37W
and 47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N between
35W and 45W.

A central Atlc Tropical wave extends from 12N52W to 06N54W moving
W at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with
broad 700 mb troughing between 50W and 56W and is embedded in the
leading edge of a surge of deep moisture. Isolated moderate
convection is south of 13N between 51W and 58W.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave extends from 21N87W to 12N90W
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing
over Central America and the NW Caribbean Sea between 85W and 90W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 15N to 22N between 84W and 89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
08N28W, where the ITCZ axis begins and extends to 08N39W to
07N52W. Other than convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of either side of
the monsoon trough east of 25W, and from the equator to 11N
between 45W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Upper troughing over the southeastern United States and the
northeastern Gulf is supporting scattered thunderstorms north of
26N east of 89W. A surface ridge axis extends from the western
Atlc across south Florida to the NW Gulf near 29N95W. This ridge
supports mainly moderate to locally fresh westerly winds north of
the ridge axis and moderate southeast to easterly winds south of
the ridge axis. Rapid wind shifts are possible around
thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf as confirmed by a recent
observation indicating a 180 degree direction shift and increase
in wind speeds to 30 kt due to outflow boundaries in the area. A
diurnal surface trough extends from 22N93W to 18N95W, moving
westward. No deep convection is noted with this trough. A tropical
wave is crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the
tropical waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours
showers and thunderstorms will continue over the eastern Gulf.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the southwestern Gulf
as the tropical wave approaches the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is over the northwestern Caribbean. Please refer
to the special features section for more details. An area of upper
level diffluence over the southwestern Caribbean supports clusters of
moderate to strong convection from 09N to 13N west of 80W. The
pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlc and
lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela supports fresh to
strong trades and seas to 12 feet south of 15N between 69W and
78W. Mainly moderate trades cover the remainder of the Caribbean.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours, except for an
increase in showers over the Leeward Islands over the weekend as
a tropical wave approaches the area from the central Atlc.

...HISPANIOLA...
Fair conditions prevail over Hispaniola today. Similar conditions
are forecast across the area through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper trough over the southeastern United States supports
clusters of thunderstorms north of 24N and west of 70W. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlc basin south of 31N
north of 15N. Two tropical waves are over the tropical central
Atlc. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.
Over the next 24 hours expect thunderstorms to continue north of
24N and west of 70W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LATTO
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