[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162351 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high and lower
pressures over South America will generate gale force winds over
the south-central Caribbean waters mainly north of Colombia from
11N-13N between 74W-77W. These conditions will begin tonight and
will continue through the next 12 hours. Please refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends
from 10N32W to 02N33W, moving west near 15-20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global
models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate
convection is from 02N-10N between 33W-36W.

A tropical wave is in the west Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 11N51W to 05N51W, moving west near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb
trough noted in the global models and a broad area of high
moisture surrounds this feature as seen on SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is observed in
the vicinity of this wave from 04N-09N between 50W-53W.

A tropical wave has been repositioned in the western Caribbean after
analyzing scatterometer data, surface observations and satellite
imagery. The new axis extends from 18N84W to 11N85W, moving at
10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. A well defined trough at 700 mb
is depicted by global models, and abundant moisture accompanies
this wave. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
observed along this wave from 11N-19N between 81W-88W affecting
the SW Caribbean waters and portions of Nicaragua and Honduras.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 07N32W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical
wave near 07N35W to 08N50W then resumes near 09N52W to 09N58W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either
side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic to the west reaching
the Gulf waters. An upper-level trough is developing across the
southeastern portion of the basin supporting scattered moderate
convection over the Yucatan and Florida Peninsulas as well as
their adjacent waters south of 25N and east of 90W. Scatterometer
data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the
basin. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next
24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and
Central America. Please refer to the section above for more
details. The proximity of this wave and a diffluent flow aloft are
supporting isolated convection over eastern Cuba and the Windward
Passage. To the east, an upper-level low centered over eastern
Hispaniola is generating isolated showers across western Puerto
Rico and the Mona Passage. Fair weather prevails across the
remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the basin. Expect in 24 hours for the tropical
wave to continue moving west with convection. Gale force winds
will develop north of Colombia tonight. Please see the Special
Feature section for details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the area at this time. An upper-
level low is centered over Dominican Republic near 19N69W. With
this, isolated convection is expected to move over the island
during the next 24 hours as this feature drifts west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection
across the western Atlantic mainly west of 75W. To the east, a
broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1021 mb high near 23N61W and a 1028 mb high near
39N26W. Two tropical waves were analyzed in the tropical
Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the waves to continue moving west
with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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