[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 32W
from 2N-10N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from
4N-8N between 31W-35W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 11N49W
to 4N50W moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the global
models and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean along 78W south of
11N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west 15 to
20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a low
amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is
embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection
is within 75 nm either side of the trough axis to inland over
Panama.

Tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends along 87W south
of 18N across Central America into the east Pacific region
moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is
embedded within a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W along 11N19W to 9N22W where the ITCZ begins
and continues east of the first tropical wave near 7N30W,
resumes west of the wave near 6N33W to east of the next tropical
wave near 7N48W, then resumes west of the wave near 7N52W to
South America near 7N59W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 35W-43W and
within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 50W-57W. Clusters of
isolated moderate convection are within 150 nm north of the ITCZ
between 45W-49W and within 200 nm south of the ITCZ between 44W-
54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over west Mexico extends a ridge axis
across the north Gulf from Brownsville, Texas to Pensacola,
Florida covering the west Gulf. A cutoff upper low in the
southeast Gulf is centered near 24N86W with a trough axis
extending northeast to over Florida near Fort Myers and
southwest to over the Yucatan peninsula generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms from 22N-27N east of 90W including
south Florida and west Cuba. The upper ridge is providing
difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 29N east of 88W to inland over the
Florida panhandle. This is leaving the west Gulf under clear
skies this afternoon. A surface ridge axis extends from the west
Atlantic across south Florida through a 1018 mb high near 28N88W
to the Texas coast near the Louisiana border. The tropical wave
in the west Caribbean will move across the Yucatan peninsula
tonight and Friday, then across the Bay of Campeche through the
weekend. The surface ridge will persist through Friday night. A
weak cold front will move into the northeast Gulf Saturday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over the west Caribbean near 16N81W
covering the Caribbean west of 73W. The upper ridge is providing
difflunce aloft and coupled with the influence of the tropical
waves in the Caribbean are generating numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms from 14N-19N between 81W-85W with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dotting the
remainder of the area between 80W-85W. A cutoff upper low is
over the Mona Passage covering the Caribbean east of 73W.
Moderate substance covers the east Caribbean south of 17N east
of 72W leaving the east Caribbean with clear skies this
afternoon. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move inland
over the Yucatan peninsula tonight. Strong easterly trade winds
across the central Caribbean and will continue through Friday
with near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are rather clear across the island this afternoon. The
upper low centered over the Mona Passage will shift west then
northwest remaining over the island into the weekend. This could
provide lift for the developing of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough is over the north-central Atlantic north of
30N supporting a cold front that enters the region near 32N49W
to 31N50W where it becomes a surface trough to 29N53W with
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within
90/120 nm east of the front north of 31N. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge that is anchored by a
1028 mb high near the Azores and extending a ridge axis through
32N36W along 25N47W to a 1022 mb high near 24N59W then across
south Floria into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist
through Saturday then retreat east of 78W. A second cold front
will move across the north portion of the far west Atlantic
early Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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