[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 01N30W to 10N29W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb trough noted in global model
fields between 25W-34W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity
along the wave axis near 06N. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03N- 07N between 29W-34W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N49W to 12N46W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad
700 mb troughing between 40W-52W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 06N-10N between 47W-52W.

Tropical wave extends from 03N74W to 11N74W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains across inland Colombia on the southern periphery
of a mid-level ridge anchored near 22N70W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 05N-10N between 72W-78W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N85W to 18N85W moving W-NW at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and
the NW Caribbean Sea between 83W-88W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 12N-20N between 79W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
05N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N29W to 06N49W to 06N55W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 05N-10N between 09W-14W...and from 02N-07N between 43W-
47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 52W-
58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A broad upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered
over the SE Gulf near 25N84W and an upper level ridge axis extends
from over southern Texas near 27N99W NE to over Louisiana. Between
these features primarily northeasterly winds aloft prevail that
promote overall stability for the basin this evening. One
exception is on the southeastern periphery of the upper level low
where lift and diffluence is maximized generating isolated
showers and tstms S of 25N E of 85W. Otherwise...a surface ridge
extending from the SW North Atlc region along 26N/27N to a 1018 mb
high centered near 27N86W is maintaining gentle to fresh
anticyclonic winds and this overall synoptic pattern is expected
to persist through Friday night. Thereafter...an area of low
pressure is expected to develop offshore of the Carolinas Saturday
draping a frontal boundary along 30N that pushes southward then
eastward through Sunday afternoon across much of the Florida
peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across the NW Caribbean between
an upper level low anchored over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25N84W
and an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the
south-central Caribbean near 13N76W. The additional presence of a
tropical wave along 85W is providing focus for scattered showers
and tstms across the Caribbean waters from 12N-20N between 79W-
86W...and isolated showers and tstms N of 20N between 79W-86W...
including portions of western Cuba. While the tropical wave is
expected to track W-NW during the next couple of days...increased
probability of precipitation is expected for much of Central
America and the Yucatan peninsula through the upcoming weekend.
Otherwise...the eastern Caribbean is under mostly stable and dry
conditions aloft with generally moderate to fresh trades E of 70W.
The strongest trades due to a strengthened pressure gradient as
ridging builds across the central Atlc will persist between 70W-
82W at fresh to strong levels.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently lingering cloudiness from earlier precipitation is
across the island this evening. A weak upper level low is centered
NE of the island near 21N67W that is expected to develop further
and then retrograde over the region Thursday and Friday. Increased
probability of convective precipitation is expected with the
favorable lifting dynamics in place through the remainder of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico this
evening that is providing diffluent flow aloft over the Bahamas
and adjacent coastal waters. As a result...scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring S of 27N W of 75W...including
portions of the Florida peninsula. Otherwise...a surface ridge
remains anchored across the SW North Atlc focused on a 1023 mb
high centered near 23N62W. The only exception to the ridging
across the discussion area is along 30N between 53W-60W as a
dissipating cold front is analyzed from 32N52W to 30N60W with
isolated showers possible N of 30N within 120 nm east of the
boundary. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029
mb high centered near 36N33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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