[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W
from 2N-10N moving west 20 TO 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from
1N-6N between 26W-32W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
12N43W to 5N47W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the
global models and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 70W moving west
near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection in the Caribbean waters.

Tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends along 82W/83W
south of 15N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving
west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a
700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within
a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south
of 16N west of 82W to inland over Central America.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W along 16N18W through a 1016 mb low near
5N20W to 4N23W. The ITCZ begins near 4N29W and continues to the
central Atlantic tropical wave near 6N44W then resumes west of
the wave near 6N48W to South America near 6N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90/120 nm of line from 9N46W to
7N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge extends across Mexico and along the coast of
Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley covering the Gulf west of
90W. A cutoff upper low in the east Gulf is centered over the
Florida Keys covering the remainder of the Gulf. This is
providing difflunce aloft to generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms north of 29N to over the north Gulf coast between
85W-90W and over the southeast Gulf from 22N-26N between 83W-
87W. This is leaving the remainder of the Gulf under clear skies
this afternoon. A surface ridge axis extends from the west
Atlantic across south Florida through a 1018 mb high near 26N84W
to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi. The surface ridge will
persist through Friday night. A weak cold front will move into
the northeast Gulf Saturday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper low over the southeast Gulf of Mexico covers the
northwest Caribbean north of 17N west of 79W. An upper ridge is
anchored over the Caribbean near 14N75W covering the remainder
of the Caribbean. The upper low is generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to over Cuba between 78W-
85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N-
15N between 75W-79W. This is leaving the remainder of the
Caribbean with clear skies this afternoon. The tropical wave
will move inland over Central America this afternoon through
tonight. Strong east to southeast trade winds are across the
central Caribbean and will persist through the weekend. Fresh to
strong east winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras
Thursday night through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are rather clear across the island this afternoon.
Moisture will be limited across the island through tonight, then
increase over the Dominican Republic and spread west by Thursday
night. This will limit showers/thunderstorms to primarily
isolated afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low over the southeast Gulf of Mexico covers the far
west Atlantic west of 78W generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the northern Bahama islands north of
24N. An upper high is over the remainder of the west Atlantic
located near 28N78W. A broad upper trough is over the north-
central Atlantic north of 30N supporting a cold front that
enters the region near 32N55W and extends along 29N61W to 30N67W
then stationary to 31N73W. This front is embedded within an area
of limited moisture. Thus, no showers are associated with this
front. A narrow upper trough extends from the broader upper
trough near 30N58W along 24N64W to 23N71W. This is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90/120 nm of
line from 29N52W along 26N58W to 26N65W. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge that is anchored by a
1029 mb high about 300 nm southwest of the Azores and extending
a ridge axis through 32N38W along 24N55W to a 1022 mb high near
24N66W then across south Floria into the Gulf of Mexico. The
west Atlantic cold front will stall and lift north of the area
today. Surface ridge across south Florida will shift a little
south on Thursday then weaken slightly Saturday. A second cold
front will sink slowly south into the far west Atlantic late
Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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