[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 02N19W to 11N19W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low noted in global model fields
in the vicinity of 05N23W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity along the wave axis near 07N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-10N between 19W-27W.

Tropical wave extends from 02N44W to 10N42W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad
700 mb troughing between 38W-46W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 08N-10N between 41W-45W.

Tropical wave extends from 02N65W to 11N64W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains across inland Venezuela on the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 22N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-09N between 63W-69W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N80W to 17N79W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the SW Caribbean
Sea between 77W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-
13N between 76W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
06N19W to 05N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N28W to 06N43W to 05N52W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 01N-06N between 25W-38W...and from 06N-08N between 49W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Northerly flow prevails over the basin this evening between a
middle to upper level low centered over the Florida Straits near
25N82W and an upper level ridge axis extending from over northern
Mexico near 27N101W to over east Texas near 31N95W. The overall
stability supports a 1016 mb high centered across the eastern
Gulf near 27N86W with generally gentle to fresh anticyclonic flow
occurring at this time. The ridging is expected to persist across
the basin through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the central Caribbean
near 15N74W with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry
and stable conditions across the eastern Caribbean E of 72W.
However W of 72W...moist southwesterly flow aloft along with upper
level diffluence over Cuba and the Windward Passage region is
generating widely scattered showers and isolated tstms between
72W-84W. In addition the presence of a tropical wave along 80W is
focusing convection across the SW Caribbean waters...including
portions of northern Colombia and Central America S of 15N.
Otherwise...trade winds remain strongest between 64W-78W in the
range of fresh to strong due to a strengthened pressure gradient
while the remainder of the waters are within moderate to fresh
levels. The existing gradient will gradually slide westward
through Thursday as ridging builds from the central Atlc to the
SW North Atlc region north of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently lingering isolated showers are possible across the
island through the overnight hours. An upper level trough axis is
expected to move south from the SW North Atlc region through
Wednesday night with a low developing aloft and then retrograding
Thursday and Friday. Increased probability of precipitation is
expected with the favorable lifting dynamics in place through the
remainder of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from 32N56W SW to
24N74W supporting an area of increased cloudiness and isolated
showers and tstms from 27N-31N between 51W-60W. Near the western
extent of the troughing...an upper level low is centered over the
Florida Straits near 25N81W providing scattered showers and
isolated tstms across Cuba and the SW North Atlc waters S of 25N
between 74W-81W. West of the trough axis however...a dry and
stable airmass prevails anchored on an upper level anticyclone
centered near 29N74W. One exception is a weak cold front analyzed
from 32N59W to 31N63W that becomes stationary to 29N71W to 30N77W.
Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the
front E of 66W. Farther east...the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1030 mb high centered near 35N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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