[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis along
14W south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in an area
of low level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 14W-16W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
near 27W from 02N to 12N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is
embedded in a large moist environment as noted by SSMI composite
TPW imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb level.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
near 42W from 01N to 09N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low
amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist
environment. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 63W
from 06N to 17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A moist environment from
the surface to 850 mb is indicated by SSMI composite TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between
62W-66W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the
wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
09N18W to 09N27W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to
04N43W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Beside the
convection associated with the tropical waves. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-08N between 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near
27N87W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the NE Gulf.
10-15 kt SE surface flow is over the remainder of the Gulf. A
surface trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N90W to
18N90W. In the upper levels, a short-wave trough over the NW
Gulf and a ridge anchored over east-central Mexico is producing
a diffluent environment over the western Gulf. Scattered
moderate convection is from 27N-33N between 88W-97W. Similar
convection is 14N-20N between 90W-100W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over N Florida north of 27N. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the surface high to move to the central
Gulf. Also expect convection to remain over the northern Gulf
due to upper level diffluence.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See above. 10-25
kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with
strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. Scattered
moderate convection is over central and eastern Cuba, Jamaica,
and Hispaniola. In the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over south Mexico near 16N94W enhancing convection.
Further east, an upper level high is centered over the NW
Caribbean near 21N85W. Elsewhere, strong subsidence is over the
central Caribbean from 11N-17N between 64W-83W. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with
convection. Also expect an increase of tropical moisture over
Cuba and Hispaniola over the next 24 hours due to upper level
diffluence, and a surface trough over the Bahamas.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the higher
elevations of Hispaniola. Expect more convection over
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 29N74W.
A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N50W
to 26N60W to 25N67W. A surface trough continues from 25N67W to
the Bahamas at 23N74W and 25N78W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the front and trough. A 1028
mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 35N27W. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
western Atlantic north of 25N between 65W-80W with a diffluent
area north of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net