[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0805 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis
extending from 14N03W to 02N05W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 04W-10W and a
surge of moisture surrounds the wave as noted on TPW imagery. No
significant convection is observed at this time with this wave.

A tropical wave is across the central tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 12N28W to 01N31W, moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 29W-33W.
It is likely this wave will remain low-latitude the next several
days as it moves west across the tropical Atlantic. Isolated
showers are in the vicinity of the wave's axis, but it is
mostly related to the proximity of the monsoon trough.

Another low-latitude tropical wave extends its axis from 13N53W
to 00N56W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The classic inverted V pattern
can be observed with this wave on Visible/IR imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the northern portion of
the wave mainly north of 07N between 52W-60W.

A tropical wave extends its axis across Central America and the
EPAC from 16N85W to 04N85W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave
coincides with 700 mb troughing between 75W-85W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave between
76W-90W enhanced by an upper-level trough centered over the
western Caribbean.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N34W to 02N50W. Isolated
convection prevails within 50 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough mainly east of 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface ridge that is centered over the west Atlantic and
eastern CONUS extends across the Gulf waters. With this, a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin.
An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is observed
along a surface trough that extends across the Bay of Campeche
from 22N90W to 19N92W. Expect a similar weather pattern to
prevail during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of an upper-level low and the proximity of a
tropical wave currently over Central America is supporting
scattered moderate to strong convection across the southwest
Caribbean mainly south of 16N and west of 75W. Lighter
convection is observed north of 16N between 75W-87W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades prevailing
across the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of north
Colombia. Expect during the next 24 hours for an increase of
tropical moisture across the Windward Islands with the approach
of a tropical wave.  The convection over the SW Caribbean will
weaken as the upper-level low moves west.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Isolated
convection is expected to develop in the afternoon hours due to
daytime heating/orographic lifting.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic
near 30N74W. South of this feature, a cold front extends from
24N73W to a 1015 mb low near 31N57W. Isolated convection
prevails along the front and low. A surface ridge dominates the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near
31N34W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please
refer to the section above for details. Expect for the front to
move east while weakening during the next 24 hours. The tropical
waves will continue moving west with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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