[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N01E to 12N02E moving W at 20 kt. The
wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 03E-02W and 850 mb
relative vorticity maximum along the wave axis near 10N. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-12N between
the Prime Meridian and 07W.

Tropical wave extends from 05N22W to 11N20W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 17W-24W
that has been trackable the last few days on long-term IR
satellite imagery across the African continent. It is likely this
wave will remain low-latitude the next several days as it moves
west across the tropical Atlc. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-08N between 13W-21W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N51W to 10N49W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with very subtle 700 mb troughing on the
southwestern periphery of an eastern Atlc mid-level ridge anchored
near 20N32W. A recent ASCAT pass around 10/1234 UTC suggests
gentle to moderate cyclonic surface winds generally N of 08N.
Isolated moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 45W-52W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N80W to 14N81W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 75W-82W and
maximum 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis
near 11N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 07N-13N between 75W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 17N17W to
07N24W to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 04N50W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 06W-32W...
and from 04N-06N between 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery over coastal Louisiana that supports a weak surface trough
extending along the coast between 92W and the Texas coast near
98W. Weak low-level moisture convergence along with the mid-level
lift is generating a few isolated showers and tstms n of 28N
between 89W-93W. Otherwise...an upper level anticyclone is
centered near 23N88W promoting a relatively weak area of lift
across the SW Gulf waters with isolated showers and tstms
occurring mostly S of 22N. Farther northeast...low-level moisture
convergence associated with a stationary front analyzed across
central Florida and marginal diffluence aloft is producing
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 25N-28N E of
88W...including portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula. High pressure is expected to continue building west
from the SW North Atlc region into the NE Gulf through early
Sunday. Gentle to moderate SE winds are expected to prevail
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level low is centered over the western Caribbean near
17N80W that continues to move westward this afternoon. Ample
lifting dynamics aloft are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms near the core of the upper level low from 15N-19N
between 76W-83W. On the southern periphery of the upper level
low...a tropical wave is analyzed along 81W. The low-level
moisture convergence along with plenty of lift at the base of the
upper level low is supporting scattered showers and strong tstms S
of 14N between 75W-85W...including portions of Panama and
Nicaragua. While the wave and upper level low continues to move
westward...increased precipitation probability is expected through
the weekend across Central America and Yucatan peninsula. East of
the tropical wave...water vapor imagery indicates a drier air mass
moving over much of the eastern Caribbean promoting stable
conditions and mostly clear skies for the islands and waters E of
74W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Overall fair skies prevail currently across the island. Dry and
stable conditions will prevail aloft which will likely inhibit any
convection through the evening and overnight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is across much of the
western North Atlc that supports a stationary front analyzed into
the discussion area near 32N58W and extends W-SW to a 1016 mb low
near 29N70W to 27N75 to a 1016 mb low near 28N80W and across the
central Florida peninsula. Scattered showers and widely scattered
tstms are occurring across the NW Bahamas and adjacent coastal
waters from 23N-28N between 75W-80W. Elsewhere...isolated showers
are occurring within 180 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...
the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge with axis along 22N extending from the central Atlc
to central Cuba. Finally...ridging prevails across the central
and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N36W.
One exception to the ridge is a weak 1021 mb low centered near
30N28W. The low is expected to dissipate during the next 12-24
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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