[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Colin has become a post tropical cyclone as of 07/15 UTC. The
system is centered near 34.0N 77.0W, or about 104 nm southwest
of Cape Hatteras. Colin is moving northeast at about 30 kt.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 52 kt with higher
gusts, although the system's strongest winds and heaviest rains
are located over water well southeast of the center between 73W-
79W. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis that
extends from 10N29W to 04N29W, west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model streamlines and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N65W to 10N67W, moving west-northwest 10 to 15
kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a weak 700
mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a broad surge of
moisture is depicted on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity
of the wave between 60W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N15W to east of the tropical wave near 06N26W.
The ITCZ begins west of the wave near 06N31W to 06N55W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm to the
north of the ITCZ. Isolated convection is observed within 50
nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level anticyclone centered over the northwest Caribbean
extends across the Gulf waters. At the surface...the only area
with convection is the eastern portion of the basin where a
surface trough extends from 26N90W to 28N82W. This feature is
related with the now Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin, which is
centered over the western Atlantic north of our area of
discussion. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and
south of this trough affecting the waters east of 86W.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate northerly flow
north of the trough while a moderate to fresh southwesterly flow
prevails south of the trough. Light and variable winds prevail
elsewhere. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface
trough to continue moving south with convection. Winds and seas
will decrease across the eastern Gulf as Colin accelerates
northeast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge is anchored over northwestern Caribbean
extending across the basin mainly west of 80W and into the Gulf
of Mexico and west Atlantic. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are observed across the western portion of the
basin and affecting the west of Cuba between 82W-87W. To
the east...a tropical wave is enhancing convection across the
eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for
details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with
higher winds prevailing across the south-central waters north of
Colombia where the pressure gradient is stronger. Expect during
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west
with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low is moving across the island supporting
isolated showers at this time. A tropical wave is approaching
from the east during the next 24 hours. With this, scattered
moderate convection will prevail across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern at this time is Colin, currently located
east of the South Carolina coast. With this, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the west
Atlantic mainly north of 28N between 72W-80W with fresh to
strong southwest winds and seas to 12 ft. Please refer to the
Special Features section above for details. A surface ridge
prevails across most of the basin anchored by a stationary 1021
mb high centered near 25N58W. A surface low was analyzed near
30N40W with surface trough extending from the low to 26N48W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 27N-30N between 34W-39W.
Another surface high is centered to the east of the low near
24N28W. A tropical wave is moving west across the eastern
Atlantic. Please see the section above for details. Expect
during the next 24 hours for Colin to continue to accelerate
northeast away from our area. The strong winds and large seas
will persist across the west waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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