[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 076 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 31.6N 80.6W at 07/0900 UTC
or about 95 nm northeast of Jacksonville, Florida and about 80
nm south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina moving
northeast at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate/strong convection is from 29N-32.5N between
76W-80W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are within 45 nm of line from 26N85W across central Florida to
29N80W and over the west Atlantic north of 26N west of 76W to
the coast from Florida to South Carolina. Please see latest NHC
intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
27W/28W from 5N-11N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 64W
from 9N-17N moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is moving beneath an upper
trough masking the inverted trough on satellite imagery. No
associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 1N15W along 7N19W to east of the tropical wave
near 6N25W. The ITCZ begins west of wave near 6N30W and
continues along 6N45W to South America near 5N53W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within
75/90 nm of line from 4N18W to the coast of Africa near 7N13W,
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-45W, and from 4N-10N
between 45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough covers the central and northeast CONUS
extending a narrow upper trough across east Texas and most of
Mexico. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are
north of 29N between 90W-93W to inland over Louisiana. An upper
ridge anchored over west Cuba extends through the Straits of
Florida into the west Atlantic covering most of the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms,
remnants of T.S. Colin, are southeast of a line from Fort Myers
Florida to the Yucatan near 21N88W including west Cuba and South
Florida. Winds and seas will decrease today across the eastern
Gulf as T.S. Colin accelerates northeast. A weak frontal
boundary will reach the north Gulf coast Wednesday night then
dissipate along 28N through Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba extending into the
the west Atlantic and covering the Gulf of Mexico and the
Caribbean west of 75W. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are west of Cuba near 22N80W to Honduras
near 16N86W. A cutoff elongated upper low is centered south of
the Dominican Republic near 16N70W extending a trough axis north
to 25N63W and south to Colombia near 11N72W. A second upper
ridge is anchored in the Tropical Atlantic covers the remainder
of the east Caribbean east of 64W. The diffluent environment
between these upper features is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of line from the northern Leeward
Islands near 18N62W to Venezuela near 10N66W. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia Wednesday night through the end of the week. The
tropical wave will be in the central Caribbean by Wednesday and
into the western Caribbean by Thursday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently skies are cleared across the island this morning.
However, isolated showers/thunderstorms are offshore to the
north and south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The cutoff
upper low over the Mona Passage will shift west across the
island through early Wednesday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will return Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern this morning is T.S. Colin that is off the
Georgia coast. See special features above. The upper ridge
anchored over west Cuba extends through the Straits of Florida
into the west Atlantic covering most of the west Atlantic. A
cutoff elongated upper low in the Caribbean extends a trough
axis north through the Mona Passage to 25N63W. A remnant surface
trough is in the east-central Atlantic extending from 28N43W to
27N57W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting
a cold front that enters the area near 32N32W and extends to
30N42W. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high in the east Atlantic near
25N27W and a 1021 mb high the central Atlantic near 25N59W. T.S.
Colin will continue to accelerate northeast out of the area
today. Strong southwest to west winds and large seas will
persist across the northern waters of the west Atlantic today
through Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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