[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 28.8N 85.5W at 06/2100 UTC
or about 59 nm south-southwest of Apalachicola. The system is
moving north-northeast at 20 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
prevails south-southeast of the storm's center affecting the Gulf
of Mexico S of 27N E of 88W. Similar convection is within 60 nm
off the Florida Big Bend, in the Yucatan channel and the straits
of Florida. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending along 26W, moving west at about 10 to 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. Saharan dry air and dust is in the wave
environment, which in part hinder the convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 63W
moving west about 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Moderate
moisture in the wave environment along with diffluent flow aloft
support scattered showers E of 67W, including the Lesser
Antilles.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N23W. The ITCZ begins west of a
tropical wave near 07N27W to 07N40W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-06N E of 15W and from 04N-09N between 37W-
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main concern in the basin continues to be T.S. Colin
currently centered over the NE Gulf. Please refer to the special
features section above for details. A middle to upper-level
trough over the central US extending SW across northern and
central Mexico supports a stationary front from southern Louisiana
near 29N91W to 27N94W to a 1008 mb low near 24N94W. For
information about winds and seas associated with T.S. Colin please
see the latest NHC high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Colin will move
northeast across the Florida peninsula tonight then into the west
Atlantic waters Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will diminish
across the east Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves
away. Showers will prevail in the NE basin as the stationary front
transitions into a cold front to move across northern Florida
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with
T.S. Colin currently in the NE Gulf of Mexico continue to affect
the NW Caribbean W of 81W. Similar convective activity is
happening in the eastern basin associated with a tropical wave.
See the tropical waves section for details. Showers in these
regions are expected to continue the next two days. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the whole basin. The
tropical wave will move to the central basin near sunrise
Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers continue to be observed mainly across the
northern Island. This activity is being supported by abundant
moisture in the region and lifting of this air by a middle and
upper level low centered near the Dominican Republic. Showers
will cease at sunrise Tuesday but will resume in the afternoon
and night hours as the upper low moves slowly to the west before
weakening into a trough. A tropical wave currently in the E
Caribbean will move to the central basin Wed morning, likely
enhancing showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.S. Colin currently centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico continue to
support scattered heavy showers and tstms N of 22N W of 77W. To
the east, a broad area of high pressure prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb surface high centered
near 24N57W. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please
refer to the section above for more details. Expect during the
next 24 hours for Colin to continue moving northeast across the
northern portion of the Florida peninsula and entering the western
Atlantic with convection. Please see the section above for more
details about this system. Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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