[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 060242
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the
low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery.
The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the
east of where the low-level center was last found.  Another
Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm
around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the
center.

The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB.  Strong
southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of
Colin before it reaches Florida.  The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model
consensus.

Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08.  The track forecast reasoning
has not changed from the previous advisory.  Over the next day or
two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the
flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic.  Later,
the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over
the north Atlantic.  The official track forecast is similar to that
of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output.

It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system.  Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 23.6N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 26.0N  86.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 29.1N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 31.8N  79.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 35.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 43.3N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 49.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z 54.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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