[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 23.4N 87.8W at 06/0000 UTC
or about 400 nm SW of Tampa Florida and about 410 nm SSW of
Apalachicola Florida moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 18N-29N between 81W-88W. See latest NHC
intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N20W to 12N18W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 16W and
22W. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity
of the wave axis at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 06N56W to 14N55W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave is embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700
mb troughing between 53W-62W on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge anchored near 18N34W. Scattered moderate
convection from 09N-16N between 52W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 06N37W to 08N59W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 07N-12N
between 10W-16W. Scattered moderate is from 06N-12N between 45W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus for the Gulf is newly updated Tropical Storm
Colin tracking from the south-central portion of the basin N-NE to
the Florida Big Bend region of the NE Gulf by Monday afternoon/
evening. Colin is located NW of an upper level anticyclone
centered over the the NW Caribbean Sea supporting scattered to
numerous showers and scattered tstms across much of the eastern
Gulf...including portions of the Florida peninsula this evening.
To the west of Colin...water vapor imagery indicates an upper
level low centered over northern Mexico that is generating south-
southwesterly flow aloft and marginal wind shear to inhibit any
significant deep convection across the western Gulf. However...the
upper level low along with a negatively-tilted middle to upper
level trough over the eastern Great Lakes region is supporting a
cold front extending across the middle and lower Mississippi River
valley to Galveston Bay near 30N95W to 27N97W and inland across
southern Texas and far northern Mexico. A weak pre-frontal 1009 mb
low is centered near 27N95W with the associated surface trough
extending S from the low to 24N96W. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring generally W of 88W. The track of Colin towards the NE
Gulf will continue to generate increased winds and building seas
across the eastern Gulf through Monday night with heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across central and northern Florida and
southern Georgia through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge is anchored over the NW Caribbean near
20N83W and influences a large area of the basin W of 75W with a
favorable upper level diffluent environment. This environment
along with the presence of Tropical Storm Colin centered in the
south-central Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered to numerous
showers and strong tstms N of 12N W of 81W this evening...
including western Cuba and portions of Central America. In
addition...periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding are
possible across these areas through Monday as Colin tracks to the
N-NE. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W with
generally fair skies this evening. One exception is isolated
showers and tstms across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the
adjacent coastal waters N of 16N between 64W-72W due to a middle
to upper level low centered near 20N66W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the
island due to peak daytime heating and instability along with an
upper level low centered near 20N66W. This overall pattern is
expected to persist overnight into Monday with increased
probability of afternoon/evening scattered showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a middle to
upper level ridge and W-NW flow aloft W of 70W. The upper level
ridge axis lies along 81W...with scattered showers and tstms
occurring W of 77W...including much of the Florida peninsula this
evening. The remainder of the region is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by 1018 mb high centered near 29N70W.
Farther southeast...a middle to upper level low is centered N of
Puerto Rico near 20N65W that is generating isolated showers and
tstms from 18N-23N between 63W-68W. Otherwise...the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad subtropical high
pressure area anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 26N41W.
The only exception to the ridging is a weakening cold front
draped within the northeast periphery of the ridge from 32N21W to
28N36W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of
the boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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