[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning.  Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone.  The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear.  NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida.  The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt.  The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours.  After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 21.9N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 24.0N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 26.9N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 29.6N  84.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 32.6N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 40.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  09/1200Z 46.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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