[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0205 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 35.9N 69.6W at 04/0300
UTC or about 291 nm east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and
about 321 nm northwest of Bermuda moving east at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Bonnie is void of any
deep convection and could become a remnant low tomorrow. See
latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Broad area of showers and thunderstorms is in the northwestern
Caribbean and is associated with the tropical wave that extends
from 17N84W across northwest Honduras, east Nicaragua, and Costa
Rica to 9N84W. A low pressure area is expected to form over
Central America or the adjacent waters moving over the Yucatan
Saturday then into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This system has
a medium chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba
and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
Currently, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are in the
Caribbean from 14N-19N between 77W-85W. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave inland over Africa extends along 6W from 4N-10N
moving west near 25 kt. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb
troughing based on GFS model and a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
12N41W to 6N43W moving west near 15 kt. Wave coincides with
broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is
clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Any
convection is associated with the ITCZ and not the wave itself.

Tropical wave inland over Colombia, South America extends along
75W from 2N-11N moving west 15 to 20 kt. The wave has been
tracked over the last couple of days on satellite imagery as an
inverted trough across the South America and the location is
based on persistent westerly motion. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are inland and within 60
nm along the west coast of Colombia from 10N-11N.

Tropical wave over Central America is now in the Special
Features section above.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the Tropical
Atlantic near 16N17W to 10N31W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 4N31W 5N44W into South America near 4N51W.
Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are
within 150 nm along the coast of west Africa south of 10N west
of 10W, within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-41W, within
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-38W, and within 200 nm
north of the ITCZ between 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A deep layered low is centered over Texas with a 1008 mb surface
low near 30N98W. This large upper low covers the Gulf west of
87W. A narrow upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across Cuba
and the Florida peninsula covering the remainder of the Gulf.
The diffluent environment is generating scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms north of 26N west of 82W to inland over
Texas and the remainder of the north Gulf coast. A surface ridge
extends from the west Atlantic to over the Florida peninsula.
The diurnal surface trough extends at 04/0300 UTC from 23N89W
inland over the Yucatan peninsula to 16N92W and is generating
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm west of
the trough axis. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
developed early this afternoon over west Cuba have moved into
the Gulf waters from 22N-26N between 83W-88W. Isolated showers
are possible across the remainder of the Gulf tonight. A low is
expected to develop over Central America or the adjacent waters
and is expected to pass over the Yucatan Saturday then into the
east Gulf Sunday bringing an increase in winds and seas to the
east Gulf Sunday into next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near
14N77W and extends into the west Atlantic covering the far east
Gulf of Mexico. This is creating a diffluent environment over
the north-central Caribbean generating scattered to numerous
showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 13N to over Cuba between
75W-85W, including Jamaica with isolated showers covering the
remainder of the area west of 70W. The easterly trade winds are
generating isolated showers over the east Caribbean east of 66W
to over the Lesser Antilles. A low is expected to develop over
Central America or the adjacent waters Saturday and pass over
the Yucatan then into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Fresh to
strong trade winds are across the central Caribbean and will
move into the northwest Caribbean by Sunday where they will
persist into early next week. Fresh to strong winds will
continue along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela through the
weekend into next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are across the island. This activity is winding down for the
overnight hours. This scenario of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a narrow ridge axis
across east Cuba and then the Florida peninsula to South
Carolina. An upper trough covers the remainder of the west
Atlantic north of 26N between 66W-77W. These upper features are
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 25N
west of 64W through the Straits of Florida. A large upper low
covers the Atlantic north of 30N and extends a broad upper
trough into the central Atlantic near 30N35W along 21N47W to the
Lesser Antilles near 12N61W. A surface ridge dominates the
Atlantic south of 32N to over the Florida peninsula with a
1023 mb high near 28N47W, a second near 30N55W, and a 1019 mb
high near 30N74W with a weakness in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough that extends from 27N72W to over the southern
Bahamas near 22N74W and a second extending from 31N42W to
28N52W. This broad surface ridge will retreat eastward as the
expected low pressure moves across the east Gulf of Mexico and
Florida Sunday into early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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