[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 040233
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016

After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today,
thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished
considerably with the only remaining convection occurring over a
small area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation.  The
maximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
Current Intensity number from TAFB.  Given the current lack of deep
convection, this intensity estimate may be generous.  Since the
system will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical
shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48
hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a
remnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by
another low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 090/10.  Bonnie is moving along the
northern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue
for the next couple of days.  The track model guidance is in
general agreement on a continued eastward motion with some
acceleration over the next 48 hours.  The official track forecast
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the
previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 35.9N  69.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 35.7N  67.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 35.4N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 34.8N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 34.3N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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