[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.9N 72.0W at
03/1500 UTC or 174 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving
E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. See
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
Bonnie is forecast to move over cooler sea surface temperatures
and is expected to be post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours.
Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-36N between 71W-73W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic from 12N39W
to 02N40W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is well depicted at the
700mb level and is embedded within a low amplitude moist
environment. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave
axis.

Tropical wave is inland Venezuela and Colombia from 11N71W to
02N72W moving W at 20 kt. Wave is embedded in a moderate moist
environment from the surface to 850 mb as depicted by CIRA layer
precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is over the western Caribbean from 19N84W to
08N81W moving NW at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a high moist
environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer
precipitable water imagery. A large area of scattered moderate
to strong convection is east of the wave axis from 08N-19N
between 77W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is over western Africa and enters the
Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N18W to 04N33W to 05N38W. The ITCZ resumes west of a
tropical wave at 05N42W and extends to the coast of South
America at 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is south of the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between
00W-03W, and from 05N-08N between 10W-15W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-08N between 18W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer low is centered over central Texas near 33N98W. A
quasi-stationary front extends south from the center to south
Texas near Corpus Christi at 28N97W. A squall line is along the
coast of Louisiana from 31N94W to 27N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the squall line. SE surface flow
is over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over the SE Gulf, Florida, the Straits of
Florida, and w Cuba south of 28N east of 87W. In the upper
levels, the upper level low over central Texas has diffluence SE
of the center producing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over the SW Gulf from 20N-25N between 94W-98W. Expect
in 24 hours for the surface low to move to near Houston Texas
with a cold front extending to S Texas with convection. Also
expect the upper level low to drift south to S Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low amplitude tropical wave is over Venezuela and Colombia.
Another tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above.
in addition scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of
Honduras and Belize from 15N-18N between 88W-89W. 15-25 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers
are over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. In the Upper
Levels, an upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean west of 70W
enhancing convection. An upper level trough is over the
remainder of the Caribbean. Expect the western tropical wave to
move NW over the next 24 hours with more convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect over the
next 24 hours for more showers, with possible thunderstorms due
to upper level diffluence.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N56W. Another
1024 mb high is further east near 28N45W producing fair weather.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
western Atlantic along 72W. Diffluence east of the trough is
producing patches of scattered moderate convection from 20N-30N
between 65W-70W. Expect in 24 hours for the two surface highs to
move some 600 nm ESE.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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